If only for a moment, it looked as though Max Verstappen’s winning streak may come to an end in Austin.
Alas, Lewis Hamilton couldn’t hold onto the lead and Verstappen claimed his 13th title of the season, with Hamilton and Charles Leclerc securing the remaining spots on the podium.
Bets-wise, it was a 1-2 day for us. Sebastian Vettel bagged a points finish for a win, but we lost on Fernando Alonso top-six and Sergio Perez on the podium. With those results, we sit at 27-30 (-0.2 units).
With only three grand prix’s left, we’ll hope to get back into the green for the year. That begins this weekend in Mexico, where we once again have a new trio of plays.
Lewis Hamilton Podium Finish (+120, BetMGM)
Mercedes arrived in Austin with their final upgrade package of the 2022 season and it appears to have paid off with a Hamilton podium.
Now, he gets a chance to repeat that accomplishment at a track where he’s previously had success. Last year, the seven-time F1 world champion secured a P2 finish after starting from the same spot. In 2019, Hamilton won the race from P4.
All told, Hamilton has finished atop the podium in four of his six efforts at the Mexican Grand Prix.Plus, in this season’s grand prix’s on correlative circuits — Hungary, Netherlands, Austria, Canada, Spain — Hamilton has a podium finish in three of those five races and has never crossed the line worse than P5. Just in the last four races on those five circuits, Hamilton finished on the podium in three.
With second still left to play for in the constructor’s championship, expect a strong showing from Hamilton’s Mercedes come Sunday. Bet to +100 for a podium finish.
Pierre Gasly Points Finish (+140, BetMGM)
Gasly received not one, but two time penalties in Austin, making this a perfect buy-low spot at one of his favorite circuits.
Last year, the AlphaTauri representative finished a remarkable P4 in Mexico City after starting in P5. Including that result, Gasly has now finished inside the points in three consecutive Mexican Grand Prix’s and has qualified inside the points in two of those three appearances.
That’s likely not a coincidence given the similar characteristics of the AlphaTauri car to Red Bull Racing, its sister team. Mexico has always benefitted Red Bull as a result of its rewarding straight-line speed and quick cooling mechanisms, both of which fit the AlphaTauri car.
Although Gasly hasn’t experienced much success at the correlative circuits this season, I’m willing to ease my nerves a bit based on recent form. Just in the six grand prix’s after the summer break, Gasly has finished in the points in three and was 11th in a fourth.
For those reasons, back Gasly up to +130 for a points effort.
Total Classified Drivers Over 16.5 (-150, BetMGM)
I recognize this is a lot of juice to lay, but there’s good reasoning behind it.
Historically, Mexico has not witnessed a lot of driver retirements. Last year, only two drivers were forced out of the race. In 2019, 18 of 20 drivers also completed the race while 2018 saw 16 drivers complete the grand prix.
However, that year saw Daniel Ricciardo out with only seven laps to go. Plus, if you look at the races on correlative circuits this year, we haven’t witnessed retirements en masse yet. All five of those grand prix’s saw at least 17 drivers finish the race with three of five seeing 18 or more.
That’s likely a result of the lack of corners at these circuits, where collisions are more likely to occur. Plus, at this point of the season, I expect teams will have solved their reliability issues, if any.
With the world and constructor’s championships both decided, I expect teams will simply want clean racing. Back this prop so long as it’s available at -150 or better.
