Heading into the final leg of this F1 triple-header, which features three race weekends in a row, the drivers will head down to Brazil for the only race on the calendar on South American soil: the network-televised F1 Brazilian Grand Prix on Sunday (noon ET, ABC and ESPN+).
The Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace in Sao Paulo is affectionately known as Interlagos due to the track's location in a region between two artificial lakes: the Guarapiranga and Billings.
The track is considered one of the last remaining old-school circuits on the F1 calendar, and it has had to evolve over the years for safety reasons. There were talks of an F1 circuit over in Rio de Janeiro, but those plans were axed a few years back.
A truly special place to go racing 💚💙💛#F1#BrazilGPpic.twitter.com/AOuMjnxnG4
— Formula 1 (@F1) November 3, 2023
Interlagos and F1 have an agreement in place to keep the grand prix in Sao Paulo through at least 2025.
Interlagos is known for its elevation changes, fast sections, hard-breaking zones, multiple sweeping corners, and a flowing experience for the drivers and fans. This track requires a fairly balanced setup to be successful. You can't sacrifice too much top-end speed with a medium-downforce setup.
There will be only one practice session this weekend for drivers and teams since this is the last of six sprint race Saturdays on the calendar.
Qualifying will take place on Friday afternoon to determine the starting grid for the race on Sunday. And before odds shift after Friday's qualifying session, here are two early look-ahead bets for race day.
F1 Brazil Grand Prix Odds and Picks
Mercedes to Pull Off Upset
Hang with me on this pick.
Max Verstappen looks unbeatable, and Red Bull have won all but one race during the 2023 season. In fact, going back to Round 12 at the French Grand Prix in July 2022, a Red Bull car has been victorious on race day 28 of the previous 30 tries. That’s one heck of a winning percentage (93.3% for those who were wondering).
The lone blemish this season for Red Bull came at the Singapore Grand Prix, where Carlos Sainz and Ferrari successfully defended a pole position to take home the checkered flag. Outside of that, Verstappen has won 16 races, and his teammate Sergio Perez has won twice in 2023.
How could I possibly pick against either Verstappen or Red Bull for the remainder of the season?
Well, the odds, for one. There is simply no value to take either Red Bull to be the winning car (-500 odds) or Max Verstappen to win outright (-300 to -400).
Is it likely that Verstappen will qualify high enough to be within striking distance on Sunday to win the race? Yes, bookmakers believe so, and all evidence from 2023 will point to that as well. However, each race presents its own set of challenges, and the probability will never be 100%.
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If there is a race to get Red Bull on an off day, Interlagos looks to me like a more opportune circuit to do so. Verstappen has won just once down in Sao Paulo – back in 2019 – so it's not all bad track history for the world champion. The two most recent races have not gone his way, though.
Two seasons ago, Lewis Hamilton put on a masterclass in driving a Formula 1 car. During Saturday’s sprint race, in only 24 laps he made up 15 places to finish P5 from all the way at the back of the grid. Due to a five-place grid penalty assessed for the starting grid for the race, Hamilton had to start on the fifth row in P10.
Hamilton caught up to Perez on Lap 18 and ultimately passed him the following lap. Hamilton then caught up to race leader Verstappen on Lap 48, when he was forced wide trying to pass going around the outside. Hamilton was then able to pass Verstappen for good on Lap 59 and go on to win the Sao Paulo Grand Prix.
Last year at Interlagos, both Mercedes cars had a great weekend all together. George Russell was able to qualify P3 for the sprint race while Hamilton was down in P8. At the sprint race on Saturday, Russell was able to take the checkered flag and win the full eight points with his teammate jumping up from eighth to P3.
Due to a five-place grid penalty for Carlos Sainz (P2 to P7), it was an all-Mercedes front row for the race on Sunday. They would end up finishing 1-2 with Russell earning his first and only F1 win.
This may seem like a long shot, and it quite rightfully is, but I am taking a calculated flyer on Mercedes to be the winning car on Sunday at the F1 Brazilian Grand Prix.
It's actually better to take this bet (Mercedes – Winning Car at +500) than to take both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell each with separate bets.
I’ll break it down: If either Hamilton or Russell wins, the payout (initial bet + winnings) is $600 on a $100 wager. If you were to bet Hamilton to win with $70 at +800 and Russell to win with $30 at +1800, the payout would be $630 and $570 respectively.
But both of these bets can’t win, so the $630 for Hamilton would subtract the $30 Russell wager, equaling the $600 payout as before. The $570 won for Russell would have to subtract the $70 Hamilton wager, earning a net payout of only $500.
Thus, I will be taking two picks for the price of one, which is available at bet365, and I'm backing Mercedes to win this weekend.
The Pick: Mercedes – Winning Car (1 unit, +500 on bet365)
Early Head-to-Head Wager
Scuderia Ferrari is coming off a second-place finish last season in the World Constructors’ Championship standings, edging out Mercedes by 39 points.
Behind that great finish was Charles Leclerc finishing in second place with 308 points and Carlos Sainz Jr. down in fifth place with 246 points.
Looking at where things stand this season, neither Ferrari driver is in the top three on the individual side of the standings. The team is comfortably in third behind Red Bull and Mercedes, but it has not been a season of improvement off last year. Sainz is tied for fourth in the driver standings while Leclerc is down in seventh.
In a season dominated by Verstappen, qualifying hasn’t really been the issue for Ferrari. Both have had success this season in qualifying sessions, including two poles for Sainz and four pole positions earned by Leclerc. This has translated into only one victory in 2023 combined.
I like the value of taking Sainz at plus money vs. his teammate Leclerc for the race on Sunday. To me, with all of the struggles Leclerc has had on race day, and the better consistency Sainz has shown this season, this line should be more like -110/-110 in the head-to-head matchup.
At Interlagos specifically, not much has separated these two drivers over the past two years. In 2021, Ferrari finished fith and sixth in the race with Leclerc finishing just two seconds ahead of Sainz. Last year, Ferrari finished third and fouth in the race with Sainz finishing just four seconds ahead of Leclerc.
These two have been anything but a consistent duo, and I like the pendulum to swing back toward the Spaniard this weekend.
The Pick: Carlos Sainz over Charles Leclerc (1 unit, +110 on BetMGM)
