Through the first two rounds of the F1 calendar and as we head into the Australian GP early on Sunday morning (1 a.m. ET, ESPN), we are starting to get a better idea of where these teams stack up. While this makes the races easier to predict, it also means that it is getting harder to bet on these F1 races.
Compared to other motorsports series, F1 is probably the most predictable. This doesn’t mean that the racing isn’t good, but as we have seen for years, the best cars usually end up winning barring any catastrophe.
The Red Bull team has the best mixture of being fast on straightaways but also in corners, which is why they have such a dominant car. If they can avoid any more reliability issues, then they are set up to have another strong race weekend. We may see other contenders in the mid-pack this week, though, as we head to a different track type.
The Albert Park Circuit in Melbourne, which hosts the Australian GP, has much more of a focus on slower turns than Bahrain and Jeddah. This will cause cars that have greater downforce to perform better than ones that are great on straightaways. This hadn’t been the case the last two races as in both of the previous tracks, the cars that were fastest in a straight line had a large advantage.
New for this year, we will also see four DRS zones in Australia rather than three, making DRS effectiveness that much more important.
When looking at this week, I think that the best strategy will be to target drivers and teams early in the week that have shown to be strong in slower corners over the first two races but didn’t have the straightaway speed to get good results.
F1 Picks for Australian GP
Fading Ferrari
One mismatch that I’m looking heavily at this week is Ferrari. While Ferrari is fast in a straight line, they have struggled with grip in the corners. This track doesn’t play to their strong suits, and I think that we may see both Aston Martin and Mercedes ahead of them in the running order.
There are a few different directions to go with this, but I think the best bet to take advantage of this is targeting George Russell -140 (BetMGM) vs Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc to not get a podium finish.
With both Mercedes and Aston showing to be much better at cornering, I think that the chances of Ferrari getting on the podium this weekend are low. They will need to overcome these issues from early in the season and have a top-tier car, as well as some possible reliability issues or accidents at the front of the grid, to have a chance at a podium.
The Picks: George Russell -140 vs Carlos Sainz (BetMGM) | Charles Leclerc No Podium -210 (BetMGM)
Lando Norris Points Finish
The start of the season has been dismal for McLaren, but I think that we could see them rebound a bit this weekend.
Lando Norris has had a rough go of it, but McLaren appears to have the car with the most downforce in the field.
At a circuit such as Albert Park, I think that their speed disadvantage will not be as pronounced and Lando will have a good shot at getting his first points finish of the season.
