As we gear up for the F1 Italian Grand Prix and as Max Verstappen looks for his 10th straight win, could we instead see another surprise winner on Sunday (9 a.m. ET, ESPN) at a track that's produced no shortage of them?
Last weekend’s F1 Dutch GP was one of the more random races in recent memory as the rain mixed everything up. Both qualifying and the race were affected by the wet weather, but we still had the same end result with another Verstappen win.
This week we head to Monza for the F1 Italian GP. Monza is one of the oldest tracks on the calendar and is possibly the heaviest power track we will see all season. Straight-line speed is king here as the teams that will succeed are the ones with the highest horsepower and least drag.
In the past the F1 Italian Grand Prix has given way to some surprise winners, but with Red Bull’s 2023 dominance, this may not be likely to happen again.
However, there is one team that I think will be able to at least take the fight to them.
F1 Italian Grand Prix Picks
A Ferrari Homecoming Party
Outside of Red Bull, I believe that Ferrari will have the strongest car this weekend.
The SF-23 has its issues, but its main strength is its top speed and lack of drag.
This fits Monza perfectly as they will be able to fly full speed around the circuit without dealing with the low-speed corners that have been a struggle for them this year.
I believe that both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc will run well this weekend, but I’m giving the slight edge to Leclerc.
The Picks: Charles Leclerc podium finish (+275 at DraftKings) | Carlos Sainz top 6 finish (+100 at DraftKings)
Alex Albon in the Points
Alex Albon has really come into his own this season. Despite driving in a Williams machine that typically stacks up to the back of the pack, he has been turning heads and running deep into Q3 most weeks.
This is largely due to the straight-line speed of the Williams.
As mentioned previously, this will be key for the F1 Italian Grand Prix.
Outside of the top couple of teams, Williams and Haas have displayed the best top-end power this year. However, Albon is the most reliable driver between these two squads.
Fading Fernando Alonso
This year’s Aston Martin started out strong but carries far too much drag to be competitive in Monza.
Zandvoort was a different story last week as pit strategy also assisted Fernando Alonso with his podium finish.
This week will be much more of a struggle since Alonso will likely finish in the back half of the points in a car that is just not a good fit for the track.
I know these are steep minus odds to lay.
However, I am that confident that Alonso will not end up on the podium this weekend without a lot of external factors coming into play.
