Let's look at the F1 Brazilian Grand Prix odds and and my prediction and bets for the third-to-last race of the F1 season (noon ET, ESPN2), which takes us to Sao Paulo and the Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace.
The track, also known as Interlagos, is one of the shortest tracks on the calendar – the fourth shortest by distance and second shortest by lap time all season.
During qualifying, the surprise winners for Q1 were the Haas F1 Team; both Nico Hulkenberg and Kevin Magnussen were inside of the top eight for lap times and made it easily into Q2. Sadly, neither driver was able to make it out of Q2 in the top 10.
Lando Norris went quickest during Q2, putting up a lap time of 1:10.021. Due to the short length of the circuit, the field was extremely close together, with 10th place in Q2 only 0.354 seconds behind the time of Norris.
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As the sky darkened and the threat of rain intensified, teams sent their drivers out in Q3 as soon as possible to get a lap in before the skies opened up. Not that Max Verstappen needed any good fortune to go his way; he was able to post a solid first lap during Q3, good enough to earn pole position for the 11th time this season.
A couple of minutes into Q3, Oscar Piastri slid off of the track to bring out a yellow flag, with the rain starting to come down. The first and only push lap for the field counted, and the rain washed out the remainder of the session.
Charles Leclerc (+4000 to win the F1 Brazilian Grand Prix) qualified second-fastest and will start on the front row next to race favorite Verstappen (-800) on Sunday.
The Aston Martin duo was happy with how the session ended, and they will start in P3 and P4.
The Mercedes pair would have started right behind them in P5 and P6 for the Brazilian GP, but George Russell received a two-place grid penalty and will have to start in P8.
F1 Brazilian Grand Prix Odds and Bets
Aston Martin Opening Lap Letdown
For the first time since July, both Aston Martin drivers got into Q3 during qualifying. To start this season, Aston Martin and Fernando Alonso specifically were right at the top of the grid. Alonso earned six podium finishes from the first eight races.
Lance Stroll, however, has struggled all season to make an impact for the fifth-place Aston Martin team. Stroll’s highest finish this season has been fourth place.
Partly due to the rain that showed up during Q3, Lance Stroll was able to put in a highly competitive lap time and earn P3 on the grid for Sunday’s race.
The view from the grandstand as the roof was ripped off at Interlagos 😳💨
(via @alvesraldney) pic.twitter.com/1QdEwNebNf
— ESPN F1 (@ESPNF1) November 3, 2023
One interesting prop bet that I found was an “End of 1st lap position” for Stroll. Third or better is even odds at +100 and fourth or worse is at -138. I think this is a fun, quick-hitting wager to watch on the opening lap of the race.
While Stroll was successful during Q3 and qualifed on the second row, I don’t believe he will be able to hold that position for even one lap of the race. His teammate, Fernando Alonso, is right next to him on the starting grid, and he has been much quicker all season than Stroll.
Interlagos is a very advantageous track for overtakes. Just last season, there were (unofficially) 77 total overtakes during the race and 39 overtakes the day before in the sprint race.
In front of Stroll is Max Verstappen and Charles Leclerc, both of which should be able to stay ahead on the opening lap. I am counting on either Alonso, Lewis Hamilton or Norris to get off to a flying start at lights out and overtake Stroll right away on the opening lap to bring this one home.
The Pick: Lance Stroll – End of 1st Lap Position: 4th or worse (1.4 units, -138 on bet365)
Ferrari Podium Fade
It is no secret that I have faded Leclerc in recent weeks – with mixed results. After two straight pole positions, Leclerc will still start on the front row but in P2.
I am taking Leclerc to not finish on the podium at Sunday’s race. There is too much firepower behind him at a track that supports overtakes. I don't feel comfortable that the car will hold up, that he team will be on the right strategy, or that drivers in better form and quicker cars behind him won’t pose a significant challenge.
Looking at times, Leclerc went third-fastest in Q1 with a 1:10.472. In Q2, his fastest lap time improved slightly, with a 1:10.303, but was only seventh-fastest on the grid. In Q3, where all drivers were only able to get one push lap in, Leclerc earned his P2 with a 1:11.021.
Fernando Alonso (P4), Lewis Hamilton (P5), Lando Norris (P6), teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. (P7), George Russell (P8) and Sergio Perez (P9) are all threats. Under the assumption that Verstappen holds onto a podium place, only two of the aforementioned drivers will need to pass Leclerc for this fade to cash.
I don’t mind laying a little juice on this wager. I believe it is still good value. Leclerc to not finish on the podium is a good to play up to -175.
The Pick: Charles Leclerc – Podium Finish? No (1.4 units, -145 on BetMGM)
Lando Norris Fastest Lap
Lando Norris just celebrated his 100th career start in Formula 1 a couple of weeks ago in Austin. While Norris has yet to win an F1 race, he has proven that he belongs with the best and will get that inaugural win eventually. During his time at McLaren, Norris has finished on the podium 12 times and has taken the fastest lap during a race five times.
Norris has won the extra point given to the driver with the fastest lap at the end of the race in every season since 2020. So far in 2023, even with a much-improved car, Norris has yet to take home a fastest lap this season. I do think he will be able to change that this weekend.
Fastest lap is a little bit of a random event; the final one or two laps are the window to achieve this feat during a race. This is due to the weight of the car being at its lowest at the end of a race after burning most of the fuel on board. If a car has a large enough gap going into the final lap of the race, a driver can pit to put on soft tires and not risk giving up a position in the final standings.
During the 2023 season, only three different drivers have won a race, but eight different drivers have won a fastest lap. The odds-on favorite to take home the fastest lap is of course Verstappen, but I think this could be one track where he is vulnerable.
Lando Norris is +1200 odds to win fastest lap. I love the odds.
Pulling up at the P2 board.
Nice job, @LandoNorris. 👏#F1Sprint#BrazilGP 🇧🇷 pic.twitter.com/wCzrGJGicC
— McLaren (@McLarenF1) November 4, 2023
Norris went quickest during Q2 with a lap time of 1:10.021.
Then on Saturday morning, Norris was also fastest in SQ2 and SQ3 during the sprint qualifying session.
The Pick: Lando Norris – Fastest Lap (0.5 units, +1200 on bet365)
