It seems like it has been ages, but the F1 calendar carries on this weekend with the F1 Dutch Grand Prix following a month-long summer break.
On Sunday (9 a.m. ET, ESPN) the cars will take the track at Zandvoort in the Netherlands for the home race of Max Verstappen.
The fans in orange will be out in full force as they hope to see Verstappen tie the all-time record for consecutive F1 wins with nine in a row.
Zandvoort is a medium-speed circuit that puts a lot of stress on tires due to the high amount of banking in a few different parts of the track. Downforce also becomes important for both the slow speed Turns 1, 3 and 12, but also for the faster portion of the track in Turns 7 and 8.
To succeed here, you need to be able to get through these corners without losing too much time to the field because you are having to brake.
This circuit is rather tight, and passing is hard to come by. This could end up leading to an increased chance of accidents and safety cars. While this has not yet borne itself out since F1’s return to Zandvoort, there have been numerous close calls.
The weekend forecast is looking very unpredictable right now. As of this writing on Thursday, there is a chance of rain all three days, which will help the teams with the higher downforce setups, but it’s still TBD whether we will see this precipitation affect the race.
Following the summer break, we can expect many teams to bring upgrades. We have already seen on Thursday new rear wing shapes by Mercedes, Aston Martin and Alpine that are an effort to reduce drag on the straightaways.
It’s also rumored that Mercedes and Aston Martin will be the teams with the two largest upgrade packages in the field this weekend.
There isn’t a bet to add for this as I don’t see any lines posted yet, but if your book offers two-way lines on finishing order or matchups involving non-teammates, look to fade Ferrari. Ferrari has struggled all year to generate any kind of rear downforce, which has led to their massive issues with tire degradation.
I don’t believe that the Dutch GP will be a strong race for them and would consider betting against them at the right number in those markets if posted anywhere.
Beyond that, let's get into my favorite F1 Dutch Grand Prix bets for Sunday morning.
F1 Picks for Dutch Grand Prix
A Challenger for Red Bull?
There is a team with odds I love out there, and that’s Mercedes. I believe that this circuit fits their car very well and they should have a strong weekend.
With the additional upgrades they are bringing, they may even be able to put an end to Max’s streak.
Last season we saw the two Mercedes drivers finish 4th and 2nd here on varying strategies after starting further back. This Mercedes car has proven to show excellent results in tire management this season, and there is no one better at this than Lewis Hamilton.
I’d expect to see some differing tire strategies across the field, but Mercedes should be able to run long for the overcut.
I believe that the safest way to attack this is by taking George Russell to score a Top 6 finish at -143. At DraftKings, you can get a double Mercedes T6 finish at -120, but that would be -EV when considering the current odds for both drivers.
With this being the case, I would rather just take Russell as the safer option.
If you are looking for more upside, I do like taking the seven-time world champion to potentially score his first win of 2023. This is a bit more risky because Hamilton will have to both outrun the other competition and their range and beat out the Red Bull drivers, but I still think that this car is well-suited to have a strong showing on Sunday.
The Picks: George Russell Top 6 Finish (-143 at Caesars) | Lewis Hamilton to Win (+1600 at FanDuel)
Aston Martin's Rebound
Things have not come easily for Aston Martin lately. After starting the year with the clear second-best car, they have struggled mightily during the summer.
The drag on this car has proven to be too much to overcome as their opponents have brought upgrades, leading to the Aston Martin falling backward in the standings.
However, this track suits their car well, and they are bringing massive upgrades. If Aston Martin doesn’t show improvement this weekend, it likely just isn’t happening for them this year.
In a similar vein to Hamilton, Fernando Alonso is a master in his craft and should be able to manage tire degradation well. The AMR23 is a high-drag car, but the upgrades to their rear wing may help this as well.
At +175, I think that Alonso is a good bet to find his way into the Top 6. McLaren’s recent strength may make things difficult, but Alonso is one of the best in the world, and hopefully, the new upgrades make a big difference.
