This weekend we head to Montreal for the F1 Canadian GP, where Max Verstappen edged out Carlos Sainz for the win a year ago.
Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve is a power track that will favor teams that do well with traction and getting out of slow corners to hit the long straights and three DRS zones that this circuit has.
Red Bull has still won every race this season, but the chance of rain in the forecast may throw some intrigue into the F1 Canadian GP on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, ESPN). As of right now, there is a 50% chance of rain during qualifying on Saturday, but it appears that the Grand Prix itself may be dry on Sunday.
While Mercedes has made progress in recent weeks, I don’t think that this track best suits their newest upgrades. With Red Bull being on top considered a lock, I think that Aston Martin and Ferrari will battle for the remaining podium spot.
Aston Martin has been best this season with their traction in corners while Ferrari has been the best at taking slow corners. This will play well at this track, but the long straight stretches are where they will both lose a little bit of time.
F1 Picks for Canadian GP
Fernando Alonso Matchup
I’ve said that I like Aston Martin a lot this weekend, and I’m going to stick with that. There are a lot of options I could take, but my favorite by far is this matchup: I like taking Fernando Alonso to defeat Lewis Hamilton.
While this bet is at chalky odds, I think that this is still a +EV play. This track does not fit Mercedes well, and even if Alonso can’t keep up with the Ferrari or Red Bull drivers, I still believe that he will have a better showing than the Mercedes legend.
If you are looking for something at plus odds, you could take Alonso to land on the podium or even the pole if you want a sprinkle there.
However, I’ll play it safe between these two options and just take him to end up in the top 3.
The Picks: Fernando Alonso over Lewis Hamilton (-155 at BetMGM) | Alonso podium finish (+110 at BetRivers)
Another Ferrari Weekend
It seems like every single weekend I am writing about Ferrari, but I just can't quit them.
Things have not been going well for Ferrari as of late. However, this track should be a good fit for their strengths. Both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz are heavily underpriced relative to the rest of the drivers in this tier.
I’ll continue to fade Mercedes and take Sainz in a matchup over George Russell at plus odds.
I also like taking a sprinkle on either of these Ferrari drivers to win at some of the extraordinarily long odds that are floating around out there. While it’s unlikely that these hit, they are still mispriced and present an opportunity for a small bet.
