F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: A Lewis Hamilton Bet for US Grand Prix in Austin (Sunday, October 22)

After a three-stop swing over in Asia and the Middle East, F1 returns to the U.S. this weekend down in Austin, Texas.

The Circuit of the Americas will play host to the F1 US Grand Prix on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ESPN) for its 11th F1 race since 2012.

This high-speed track is known for its 133-foot climb from the starting grid going into Turn 1, a sequence of back-and-forth corners inspired by Silverstone, and a triple apex stretch through Turns 16-18 modeled after Turn 8 at Istanbul Park.

Last year, Max Verstappen won the United States Grand Prix for the second consecutive year. Carlos Sainz Jr. started on pole and was taken out of the race at Turn 1 of the opening lap by George Russell.

Lewis Hamilton gave Verstappen a battle down to the very end of the race, but ultimately he could not hold off the now three-time world champion.

Qualifying took place on Friday afternoon for the second consecutive Grand Prix weekend due to the sprint qualifying and sprint race taking place on Saturday. After only one session out on the track during FP1, the drivers were out in the Texas heat trying to keep their cool and keep the car in between the white lines.

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Once again, several lap times were deleted throughout the qualifying session due to drivers losing the racing line and having all four tires cross outside of the white line of the track limits.

Qualifying was a disaster for both Aston Martin drivers; neither was able to get out of Q1 and into the top 15. Q2 saw the exit of both AlphaTauri and Alfa Romeo cars in the bottom five lap times. Getting into Q3 were the pair of drivers from Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Alpine.

With the fastest lap time during both Q2 and Q3, Charles Leclerc will start on pole for the third time this season.

The Ferrari driver has had an up-and-down season, including three podium finishes, and he's in sixth place in the Drivers' Championship. Much like at Monza, the top-end speed of the Ferrari plays well at the Circuit of the Americas if they can get the acceleration right coming out of the low-speed corners.

Leclerc took pole with a Q3 time of 1:34.723.

Right next to Charles Leclerc on the front row for the race on Sunday will be surging Lando Norris in P2.

Norris is coming off of three straight podium finishes, and he has arguably been the second-best driver on the grid over the previous eight races. During his media obligations, Lando downplayed McLaren’s potential effectiveness at a track like COTA, but his times during qualifying show otherwise.

Missing out on pole position by just 0.13 seconds, Norris posted a 1:34.853 in Q3.

Verstappen will start all the way down in P6 after a qualifying session in which the Red Bull looked like it had quite a bit of pace, but he wasn’t as sharp as usual.

Getting multiple times deleted due to going over the track limits, Verstappen's best time in Q3 was a 1:35.081, only sixth best on the grid.

Ahead of him will be Hamilton in P3 (five-time winner at the Circuit of the Americas), Sainz in P4, and Russell in P5 for the race on Sunday.

F1 US Grand Prix Odds and Bets 

Lewis Hamilton Delivers Stateside

Long before the Formula 1: Drive to Survive series brought the action and backstories to a new viewing audience here in the U.S., Lewis Hamilton was winning races at a historic clip.

Of his record 103 wins in F1, six have been at the F1 US Grand Prix with the first coming at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway back in 2007. Since the move of the US Grand Prix to Austin full-time in 2012, Hamilton has won five of the 10 races at the Circuit of the Americas.

Bringing a fresh upgrade package to Austin for Mercedes, they are hoping to solve a known issue that has hampered both Hamilton and Russell all season. The upgrades are to the floor body and the floor edges, both with the goal of improving rear downforce.

Looking at lap times from Friday’s practice session and qualifying, it appears that the new upgrades on the Mercedes have helped the car perform and stay competitive with the top drivers.

During FP1, Hamilton posted the third-fastest single lap time on the grid. Moving into qualifying, he posted the fastest time during Q1 with a 1:35.091. With starting P3 on the grid for the race on Sunday, Lewis went third fastest in both Q2 and Q3 at the end of qualifying.

Combining the incredible track history with the improved Mercedes car and a second-row starting position, I am backing Lewis to have a great race day in front of more than 100,000 fans down in Texas. The books have Hamilton to finish in the top three set at -190/-200, which implies a 66.7% chance, and it's a little too much juice to lay in my opinion.

Based on my first pick, I think it will happen, and you could double down on Lewis if you are so inclined to do so, but I am taking it one step further.  I like Hamilton to finish in the top two on Sunday at COTA.

One other note to consider here is that Verstappen and Hamilton have finished Nos. 1-2 in the F1 US Grand Prix during the past two races.

The Pick: Lewis Hamilton – Top 2 Finish (1 unit, +100 on Bet365)

Ferrari Driver Back on Pole

Charles Leclerc will start on pole position after a terrific qualifying session. For the second consecutive US Grand Prix, a Ferrari will start at the front of the grid.

Leclerc will hope to have a better result this year; Sainz was knocked out of the race on Turn 1 last year.

For starting in P1, the books don’t seem to have much faith in Leclerc getting it done on Sunday. He has the fourth-best odds to win the race despite leading from lights out in Austin.

This is likely a justified point of view as it has been a mediocre season at best for the Ferrari team as a whole.

The largest question for Ferrari to answer is whether or not they have solved the tire-degradation problem that has plagued them during races all season. The tire wear at COTA is always high due to the low-speed turns and long straights.

Ferrari seems to think they have solved the issue, dating back to an upgrade package brought in by the team a couple of months ago.

While Leclerc has only three podium finishes this season, all three have come from the front row on the starting grid. For the readers' sake, I hope you were able to jump on this bet early in the week, as my colleague Cody Goggin was all over Leclerc podium finish at even better odds than where they sit currently.

While the odds are sitting at close to even, I still see a lot of value in this bet.

Leclerc ran fastest of the pack during both Q2 and Q3, and he can hold on due to the outstanding pace of the Ferrari.

I am doubling down on a Leclerc top-three finish, which he also achieved last year at the F1 US Grand Prix.

The Pick: Charles Leclerc – Top 3 Finish? Yes (1 unit, +110 on BetMGM)