Monaco is one of the most historically significant tracks on the Formula 1 calendar. Nowadays this event has become more about the pomp and circumstance of the weekend compared to the racing. With modern-day cars, this track just isn’t wide enough to produce quality racing.
We will likely not see very many overtakes, and the final running order on Sunday for the F1 Monaco Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN) will likely be determined during Saturday’s qualifying session.
For that reason, qualifying becomes more important at Monaco than anywhere else on the calendar. If you can put together a great qualifying run at Monaco, that will set you up for some major success in the Monaco GP on Sunday.
This gives us an opportunity to capitalize prior to the weekend by betting on teams that we think will have speed on Saturday as they will likely be able to retain this good positioning throughout the race.
F1 Picks for Monaco Grand Prix
Charles Leclerc’s Homecoming
Monaco is the slowest track on the schedule. To be strong here, you have to be proficient throughout the slow, sharp corners. Despite Red Bull dominating this season so far, it’s actually Ferrari that has been the best in slow corners. Their typical disadvantage comes from high-speed turns and on straightaways, neither of which will be an issue at Monaco.
LeClerc has had chances to win at his home track before but has continuously run into bad luck. In 2021 he recorded the fastest lap in qualifying before crashing at the end of the session, making him unable to start the race on Sunday. In 2022 it looked as if LeClerc was in prime position to challenge for a win here before some poor communication and pit strategy ruined his day yet again.
Due in part to LeClerc’s history of showing speed here, he is correctly listed right behind the two Red Bull drivers – Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez – in terms of odds. At most sportsbooks, Leclerc is +400 or shorter to win. I don’t necessarily love the value there, but with a little bit of line shopping, a good price is readily available on the hometown hero.
At FanDuel you can grab Leclerc to win at +550. Using Action Network’s odds calculator, you can see that just by taking +550 compared to +400, you are gaining 4.62% in implied probability.
While I believe most of LeClerc’s potential success this weekend is already priced into the market, this line is far enough off-market to where I would recommend taking it until it falls more into line with the rest of the books.
Pick: Charles LeClerc to win (+550) |
The Forgotten Ferrari
Did I mention that I think this track fits Ferrari almost perfectly? While LeClerc is getting all of the love from the books, it seems like Carlos Sainz is not getting nearly as much attention. Sainz has never finished out of the points at Monaco for any of his four different teams. In his previous two seasons at Ferrari, Sainz finished second in both years.
At Kambi Books and BetMGM, Sainz is +1400 to put his Ferrari on the pole during qualifying. However, at DraftKings, he is a much longer shot to qualify first at +2200. If you like Sainz to win the race as well, you can also take him at +3000 on DraftKings.
I wouldn’t get carried away with these long-shot outright bets on the Ferraris, but they do represent value on the market that is worth a sprinkle.
The Picks: Carlos Sainz to qualify first (+2200 at DraftKings) | Sainz to win (+3000 at DraftKings)
Best of the Rest
After Ferrari and Red Bull, the next two best teams on slow corners this year have been Aston Martin and Alpine. While this isn’t shocking for Aston Martin with how they have run thus far, this is a bit surprising for Alpine.
Both Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon have had success at Monaco in the past. Gasly has finished in the top 7 at Monaco in three of his four races, with his worst performance being an 11th-place outing last year.
Ocon has had similar success here, with two points finishes in four races and a worst result of 12th.
I expect both Alpines to be strong this weekend, but I personally would give the edge to Gasly with them being priced similarly. Regardless of which one finishes first, I think that both Alpines will end up in the points at the end of the weekend.
