Check out the latest F1 odds and Spanish Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, June 23.
Round 10 of the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship takes us to Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for the Spanish Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN & ESPN+). This will be the penultimate F1 race at this venue for the foreseeable future; the event will move to Madrid beginning in 2026 and through 2035.
In the most recent F1 race, we had plenty of drama in Canada. Cautions and weather throughout the entire weekend added some intrigue and variance into the mix, but at the end of the day, Max Verstappen came out victorious once again.
However, the gap that Max has on the field does seem to have closed. We are now going on almost two months straight in which Ferrari and McLaren are both making gains on Red Bull, with each winning a race in that time period. In Canada, Lando Norris actually had better race pace than Verstappen overall and was set up for a possible win before an ill-timed caution gave him a disadvantage in the pit. He dropped back before fighting back to a second-place finish.
Verstappen is still the odds-on favorite to win the F1 Spanish Grand Prix this weekend, but other drivers getting into the mix seems to be more possible than most thought at the beginning of the season. Here are the current odds to win the Spanish GP from FanDuel as of Thursday:
- Max Verstappen: -270
- Lando Norris: +490
- Charles Leclerc: +900
- Lewis Hamilton: +2100
- Oscar Piastri: +2900
- Carlos Sainz Jr.: +2900
- George Russell: +2900
- Sergio Perez: +3600
- Fernando Alonso: +11000
- Yuki Tsunoda: +18000
- Daniel Ricciardo: +18000
- Lance Stroll: +18000
- Nico Hulkenberg: +18000
- Alexander Albon: +18000
- Valtteri Botas: +18000
- Kevin Magnussen: +18000
- Pierre Gasly: +18000
- Zhou Guanyu: +18000
- Esteban Ocon: +18000
- Logan Sargeant +18000
This circuit is one where you will need a lot of downforce for a number of fast corners, but you also don’t want to have drag due to the final corner and long main straight. The removal of the final chicane before last year’s race increased overtaking in this portion of the track but removed some of the need for low-speed cornering ability.
Managing tire wear will be paramount. This circuit puts a lot of stress on these tires. This could potentially be a place where Ferrari shines. They have done well with managing tires in warmer temperatures. McLaren has also shown the ability to make tires last a long time as Norris and Oscar Piastri have been strong late in a stint.
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F1 Odds: Spanish Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Sergio Perez Looks to Rebound
Sergio Perez has not been the most reliable driver over the last number of weeks. After starting off the season fine, he has failed to make it to Q3 in the last three weekends and has crashed out in each of the last two.
However, I think that Perez is still in what is likely the best car in the field, even if that margin has narrowed. This track compares favorably to Suzuka, where Red Bull scored a 1-2 qualifying and finish. While that was before McLaren and Ferrari closed the gap, Perez should still have solid odds of finishing toward the top of the grid – despite his recent struggles.
I think the best value on the board to take advantage of this with long-shot odds is Red Bull to finish first and second once again. This is currently priced at 12/1, which seems to be high based on the ability of their car. It’s likely that someone like Lando Norris may ruin this, but at this heavy price, I’ll take a shot at a big payday.
If looking for a more conservative way to back Perez, I also like taking him to finish in the top 6, which you can grab at -200 right now while it’s as low as -330 at some books.
The Picks: Red Bull 1-2 Finish (+1200 at BetMGM, bet to +1100) | Sergio Perez Top 6 Finish (-200 at BetRivers, bet to -225)
Winning Margin Under 15.5 Seconds
The odds on this may be short, but I think we're getting a ton of value with this bet. As mentioned before, the gap has closed and is not as wide between the top few teams. This isn’t 2023 when Verstappen was dominating the entire field by half a lap.
In fact, there hasn’t been a race decided by more than 15.5 seconds since this season’s opener in Bahrain. Last season, we saw six races decided by a margin greater than this. Even using last year as an example would indicate that this should be priced at -267.
The results of last year’s race seem to explain why this line is where it is. Verstappen won that race by 24 seconds over Lewis Hamilton in dominating fashion.
I believe that Caesars Sportsbook is not weighing recent data heavily enough to see how close McLaren and Ferrari now are to Red Bull. Mercedes even had an impressive showing last weekend and ran well here last year, so we could see them challenge as well. Regardless of who the challenger is, I don’t think there is enough of a gap in the pack to justify this outsized line.
