Check out F1 odds with Spanish Grand Prix predictions and picks for the morning race on Sunday, June 23 (9 a.m. ET, ESPN & ESPN+).
After a weekend off, the drivers and teams are back on European soil for the Spanish Grand Prix on Sunday. This is the penultimate edition of this Grand Prix in Barcelona, as the race will take place in Madrid starting in 2026.
The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is a permanent racing facility that has been on the Formula 1 calendar every year since it opened back in 1991. All drivers and teams are intimately familiar with this track, as it is regularly used for offseason testing.
This racing circuit is known for its high-speed corners and rewards a higher downforce setup. This track has a history of being demanding on tire wear; just last year, the race featured 43 pit stops in total. Fourteen of the 20 drivers used all three compounds of dry tires, while every driver on the grid made at least two pit stops.
Qualifying on Saturday afternoon took place under cooler conditions than previous practice sessions, lowering the fastest lap times by almost a second compared to last season’s qualifying. Putting together the fastest lap time of the session, Lando Norris (1:11.383) barely edged out past champion Max Verstappen for pole position by 0.02 seconds in Q3.
In a second-row lockout, both Mercedes will start P3 and P4, with Lewis Hamilton besting his teammate by an eyelash. Right behind them on the third row of the grid, Charles Leclerc and hometown hero Carlos Sainz for Ferrari will start P5 and P6, respectively.
In a bid to turn around their season, sitting in eighth place currently with five total points in the Championship, both Alpine drivers made it into Q3 for the first time this season. Pierre Gasly will start P7 and Esteban Ocon will start the race right next to him in P8, after moving up one slot due to Sergio Pérez's grid penalty.
Here are the current odds to win the Spanish GP from FanDuel as of Saturday:
- Max Verstappen: -130
- Lando Norris: +155
- Lewis Hamilton: +1200
- George Russell: +2500
- Charles Leclerc: +2900
- Carlos Sainz Jr.: +3500
- Oscar Piastri: +5000
- Sergio Pérez: +11000
- Fernando Alonso: +18000
- Pierre Gasly: +20000
- Esteban Ocon: +42000
- Daniel Ricciardo: +50000
- Kevin Magnussen: +50000
- Valtteri Bottas: +50000
- Alexander Albon: +50000
- Lance Stroll: +50000
- Zhou Guanyu: +50000
- Yuki Tsunoda: +50000
- Logan Sargeant +50000
- Nico Hulkenberg: +50000
F1 Odds: Spanish Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Lando Norris Converts from Pole
It has been extremely difficult for anyone not named Verstappen to win a Formula 1 race for the better part of the last 3.5 seasons. In fact, over the last 50 rounds dating back to Round 04 in 2022, Verstappen has been victorious 39 times. In 2024 alone, he has won six of nine races, but not without the rest of the pack slowly catching up to the world champion.
I see this years’ Spanish Grand Prix being a two-horse race at the top; fought between Verstappen and pole-sitter Norris. Since moving the Grand Prix to Barcelona, 30 of the 33 winners have started in either P1 or P2 on the grid.
With the odds being +175 at DraftKings, the implied odds have Norris winning the race at 36%. Of note is that of the 30 race winners mentioned above at Barcelona, 24 have won from pole and only six from P2. This plays to Norris' favor, as he will start ahead of Verstappen and force Verstappen to overtake him on the track or through a favorable pit stop strategy.
Going back to Miami, where Norris secured his first race win, he and Verstappen have split the head-to-head results two to two. Norris won in Miami by 3.371 seconds over Verstappen in P2. In Italy, Verstappen won from pole, but was only 0.725 seconds ahead of Norris to close out the race. At Monaco, neither driver made the podium, but Norris did finish in P4, two spots ahead of Verstappen. Finally, two weeks ago in Canada, Verstappen and Norris each surpassed pole-sitter George Russell and finished one-two — Verstappen 3.869 seconds ahead of the British driver.
I like the value on Norris here, with the track history and track position all in his favor. The team will need to get the tire strategy exactly correct and for Norris to continue to drive on the same level as Verstappen — but the plus money is enticing to say the least.
The Picks: Lando Norris – Race Winner (1u, +175 via DraftKings) | Norris – Head-to-Head Over Max Verstappen (1u, +120 via BetMGM)
Race Winner Without Top Five Teams
Gasly has finished P10 and P9 over the last two races, his first points of the season. Things were not going well for Alpine over the first seven rounds of the season. The team and Gasly have individually turned things around in a big way.
Starting in P7, Gasly will start ahead of the likes of Oscar Piastri, Fernando Alonso and Pérez. Rather than betting Gasly to finish in the top six, or even lay the juice for him to finish in the points, take a look at this unique market to bet Gasly in Spain.
Gasly is the favorite to be the top driver when removing each driver from Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston Martin. Rather than betting him in a head-to-head matchup against his teammate (having to lay -250), this is a better alternative. The closest two competitors in the group of 10 drivers are Ocon, starting in P8, and Valtteri Bottas, who starts down in P12.
