Check out the latest F1 odds and Austrian Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, June 30.
Last weekend in Spain we were left on the edge of our seats as we watched Lando Norris try to chase down Max Verstappen for the win. Norris came up short, but he should have a good chance of replicating this performance this weekend.
This week we head to Spielberg for the Austrian Grand Prix at the Red Bull Ring on Sunday (9 a.m. ET, ESPN). The defining characteristics of this track are its multiple long straights and high altitude. This high altitude will result in a decrease in drag and downforce, hurting teams that already have low drag while helping ones that deal with higher levels of drag.
It’s been a while since we have had one, but this will be a sprint qualifying weekend with just one practice session before sprint qualifying on Friday (10:30 a.m. ET), and then on Saturday, we have the sprint (6 a.m. ET) and qualifying (10 a.m. ET) for the grand prix.
It seems that McLaren has almost fully closed the gap with Red Bull. Verstappen and Norris have both displayed their talents over the last number of weeks, but it appears that Lando and the McLaren are now on equal footing at the top of the grid.
Just behind these two teams, the gap has also been closed as Ferrari and Mercedes sit right behind these top two. The gap among these top four squads is about as tight as it has been in recent memory, making this a hard season to handicap going forward.
Verstappen is still the odds-on favorite to win the F1 Austrian Grand Prix on Sunday, but other drivers getting into the mix seems to be more possible than most thought at the beginning of the season. Here are the current odds to win the F1 Austrian Grand Prix from FanDuel as of Thursday:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -170 |
| Lando Norris | +250 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1800 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2100 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +2200 |
| George Russell | +2200 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +2900 |
| Sergio Perez | +3100 |
| Fernando Alonso | +18000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +42000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +42000 |
| Lance Stroll | +42000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +42000 |
| Alexander Albon | +42000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +42000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +42000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +42000 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +42000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +42000 |
| Logan Sargeant | +42000 |
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F1 Odds: Austrian Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Buying into McLaren's Surge
I don’t think that Red Bull has the best car any longer. McLaren is, at minimum, right on par and may actually be ahead despite Verstappen winning last weekend’s race. Norris was only 0.04 sec per lap off of Max on average despite being stuck behind George Russell and dealing with more traffic throughout the race.
McLaren has suffered from high drag on the straights this season but has great downforce in the corners. This downforce advantage will help them in Sector 3 while the elevation will help them make up for their drag deficiency in the first two sectors.
The odds aren’t as great backing Lando now as they once were, but I still think Max should only be a narrow favorite this weekend as there might be a new fastest team in F1.
The Pick: Lando Norris to Win (+285 at DraftKings) | Bet to +250
A Back-of-the-Pack Long Shot
Sauber desperately needs to score some points. They have not yet been able to do so this season and sit dead last in the Constructor Standings.
Despite their lack of success this year, I think they are in a better place this weekend than the books are giving them credit for. Last weekend in Spain, Zhou Guanyu finished with the 12th best race pace, right behind the Alpines and Hulkenberg.
This weekend’s track could suit them well; they have suffered from higher drag, which may not have as much of a factor this weekend. When looking at the best qualifying lap of each team from Spain, Sauber had the seventh-best average speed overall despite having the third-lowest top speed.
Outside of the top five teams, I think that Sauber has a chance to finish the best. Haas has an incredibly quick car in a straight line, but it has low drag and a lack of downforce, which will likely neutralize some of their speed advantage this weekend.
Alpine is the main contender right now to be the best of this group as they are another high drag car, but their lack of engine power could hamper their ability on the straights despite getting a boost from the reduced air density.
Williams was the worst car in the pack yet again last weekend while RB had high end top speed but struggled with their downforce, ranking ninth in median speed.
I learned my lesson last time I backed Kick Sauber, so rather than taking them to finish strong in the race, I’ll instead back them during qualifying. They have the slowest pit crew in F1, so while they may be good in race pace, this could hurt them overall.
Keep in mind that these are long shots, so I wouldn’t recommend playing these for anything but smaller stakes. But I think taking both Sauber as a team and Zhou as a driver to be fastest qualifier outside the top five teams makes for valuable bets this weekend.
The Picks: Fastest Qualifier Outside of Top 5 Teams – Zhou Guanyu (+6500 at DraftKings) | Kick Sauber (+1400 at DraftKings)
Winning Margin Under 9.5 Seconds
Last weekend I took a bet on the winning margin being under 15.5 seconds, which hit rather easily as Verstappen won by just 2.2 seconds over Norris. I still don’t believe that all books are pricing this prop correctly.
The gap between the top four cars on the grid is miniscule, and I think we will see another interesting battle at the front of the pack. I don’t foresee a likely scenario in which one car is that much better than the others to warrant there being a 10-second victory this weekend. Even with an advantage last year, Max was still only able to edge out Charles Leclerc by 5.155 seconds for the victory.
I think that there is a great chance this race is decided by at least 6-7 seconds or less. At 9.5 seconds, I feel like that gives a good amount of wiggle room to be fully comfortable on this under.
