Check out the latest F1 odds and my Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, September 15, with bets on Oscar Piastri and Daniel Ricciardo, among others.
The Formula 1 season is heating up as we head to Baku for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix on Sunday (7 a.m. ET, ESPN). This will by Race 17 out of 24 this season, and the championship standings are as close as they have been in months.
Red Bull’s gap over McLaren is down to just eight points in the Constructor standings as Red Bull has been struggling for a few months now after dominating for the last couple of years. Ferrari are also lurking in this battle, just 31 points behind McLaren following their win at Monza last week.
In the driver championship standings, Max Verstappen still holds a 62-point lead over Lando Norris and an 86-point lead over Charles Leclerc. Verstappen should still be able to hold onto this lead, but it seems more likely with each passing week that Norris may be able to challenge him.
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I think that this could be the case this weekend in Baku as well. Baku has one of the longest, fastest straightaways on the F1 circuit, but the first two sectors of the street circuit feature many slow-speed corners, similar to Monaco.
Teams that fared well in Monza last weekend will see that speed carry over in Sector 3, but without enough, they will give up time in the first two portions of the circuit. This looks to be a great circuit fit for McLaren, but Ferrari may be the next best on the grid at this point.
Here are the current F1 odds to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix as of Thursday and via DraftKings:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +120 |
| Charles Leclerc | +390 |
| Oscar Piastri | +500 |
| Max Verstappen | +750 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +1000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1100 |
| George Russell | +1400 |
| Sergio Perez | +2500 |
| Fernando Alonso | +25000 |
| Alexander Albon | +25000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +30000 |
| Lance Stroll | +30000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +30000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +30000 |
| Oliver Bearman | +30000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +40000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +40000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +40000 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +50000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +50000 |
F1 Odds With Azerbaijan Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Oscar Piastri To Podium
Lando Norris has been grabbing the headlines as he has taken home multiple grand prix victories now, but teammate Oscar Piastri has been almost just as quick at most tracks. Piastri finished ahead of Norris at Monaco and was also faster at Monza last weekend.
McLaren’s drag problems did not hamper them from qualifying well in Italy. They took the front row last weekend before Ferrari won the race with pit strategy. However, the two McLarens did have the best race pace overall.
Piastri also qualified second at Monaco, just behind Leclerc. I think that there is a great chance of McLaren winning this race and specifically of Piastri being the fastest driver overall since the McLaren is the best all-around car right now.
However, with Norris being in the battle for the drivers' championship right now, I don’t want to be on the wrong end of potential team-order issues. If you don’t think this will be the case, then you can take a shot on Piastri to win, but I’ll play it safe and bet the Aussie to score a podium finish at -160.
Pick: Oscar Piastri to podium finish (-160 at FanDuel) | Bet to -175
Carlos Sainz Top 4 Finish
Similarly to McLaren, the No. 1 driver on the team has been getting the press, but the No. 2 driver has been no slouch either. Carlos Sainz was only 0.11s/lap slower than Max Verstappen in Monza despite being on old tires for much of the race as he pitted only once.
Sainz has consistently been among the top six fastest cars on the grid, and I believe that Baku will play to their advantage. Ferrari is the least-draggy car among those at the top of the grid, which helps them to achieve superior top speeds on the straightaways.
They also have enough downforce on their car to handle these slow corners with ease. Where Ferrari has struggled more this season is the high-speed corners, which won’t be an issue at Baku.
McLaren should have the best car on the grid this weekend, but I think it will be Ferrari right behind them rather than Red Bull or Mercedes. My favorite bet to take on Carlos Sainz is for him to finish in the top four drivers, which is priced at +120.
Pick: Carlos Sainz Top 4 finish (+120 at DraftKings) | Bet to +110
Daniel Ricciardo & RB, Best of the Rest
The race among the bottom five teams was quite interesting at Monza. Haas had a slight edge in speed with their low drag, which helped both of their drivers to lead the way in race pace among the bottom five teams. This weekend, however, Kevin Magnussen will not be racing due to a suspension, and their car may not be quite as good with the increased need for downforce in Sector 1.
The other challengers in the mid-pack are RB and Williams. Over the last few weeks, Alex Albon has been looking quick in his Williams. He was just 0.09 s/lap slower than Nico Hulkenberg despite pitting one less time. I expect both Albon and Hulkenberg to compete for a potential points position in this race, and the market reflects this, with them being the two favorites to win outside of the top five teams.
However, the team I don’t think is getting enough respect in this market is the Racing Bulls. RB had Daniel Ricciardo just 0.07s/lap behind Ricciardo at Monza. Ricciardo was also right behind Alex Albon in the Dutch GP despite having one fewer pit stop, and he had the ninth-best race pace on the grid at Belgium, as well.
RB also excelled as the top two cars among the bottom five teams at Hungary, and Tsundo was eighth in race pace at Monaco.
This definitely isn’t a surefire bet, but I think the RB should be priced with odds similar to Williams and Haas rather than being at +350. I don’t mind taking small bets on both RB at +350 as a team and Ricciardo +650 individually to be the best finisher among the bottom five teams.
Picks: Daniel Ricciardo best finisher without Top 5 teams (+650 at DraftKings, bet to +550) | RB best finisher without Top 5 teams (+350 at DraftKings, bet to +275)
