Check out the latest F1 odds and Belgian Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, July 28, with bets on George Russell, among others.
This weekend the F1 World Championship heads to Spa for the Belgian Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN). This historic race will be the last event before summer break, when the circuit will be off for a few weeks.
Last weekend’s F1 Hungarian Grand Prix was straight out of an episode of "Drive to Survive." There was drama all around the track that now carries over into this weekend's race. At the front of the pack, you had McLaren making Lando Norris give his teammate Oscar Piastri his first win in the name of fairness, while just a few spots back you had Max Verstappen acting testy on the radio for much of the day before crashing himself into Lewis Hamilton in an aggressive move.
Verstappen will be starting the F1 Belgian Grand Prix with a huge disadvantage; he will be taking a 10-place grid penalty due to exceeding his engine allowance for the season. Because Spa has plenty of opportunities for overtaking, Verstappen should still have ample opportunities to make his way through the pack to contend.
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Unlike some of the recent circuits we have been due, Spa is much more well suited for a low-drag setup. Sectors 1 and 3 both have multiple long straights while Sector 2 has many fast corners. This means drivers would want a low-drag setup, but you would also want to maintain just enough downforce to perform in S2.
This favors some of the cars with the lowest drag, such as Haas and possibly Ferrari to a lesser extent. However, this would hurt teams such as McLaren and Alpine, which have a more draggy car.
Still, I think McLaren should be the favorite to win this race, but the margin will likely be closer than last weekend. McLaren had their setbacks on the long straights and may not be great at overtaking if they need to, but they will be strong enough in the high downforce portion of the track to make up for a lot of what they lose on the straights.
Lando Norris is the favorite to win the F1 Belgian Grand Prix on Sunday, but with Verstappen having to come from the mid-pack, this race could be wide open. Here are the current F1 odds to win the Belgian Grand Prix as of Thursday and via DraftKings:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +105 |
| Oscar Piastri | +285 |
| Max Verstappen | +400 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1100 |
| George Russell | +1100 |
| Charles Leclerc | +3500 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +4500 |
| Sergio Perez | +5000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +25000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +25000 |
| Lance Stroll | +25000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +25000 |
| Alexander Albon | +25000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +25000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +30000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +40000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +40000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +40000 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +50000 |
| Logan Sargeant | +50000 |
F1 Odds: Belgian Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
George Russell Podium Finish
Mercedes has had a great summer, and I think they may be able to continue this success in Belgium. At Canada, George Russell displayed what this car is capable of at a low-drag track, taking pole position. They also had success on the straights in Austria a few weeks ago when Russell scored a victory after the contact between Verstappen and Norris.
As I mentioned before, the McLaren should still be the favorite, but Mercedes may be right on their heels. I don’t think Verstappen is going to be able to fight all the way to the front on Sunday as he comes back from his grid penalty, potentially leaving an opening for another team to step into the top spot if McLaren isn’t as sharp.
I think that both George Russell and Lewis Hamilton may end up with a chance to compete for a podium at least and potentially even the win this weekend. George has had better success this season at this type of track, so I’m going to give a slight lean in his direction despite the poor showing last weekend.
The Picks: George Russell Podium Finish (+125 at BetMGM, bet to +115) | Russell to Win (+1100 at DraftKings, bet to +1000)
Haas Best of Bottom Five
Haas has the best car on the grid in straight-line speed. They have extremely low drag and are able to perform exceptionally well on straights. For this reason, I love them this weekend since they should be the best-performing team from the back end of the pack.
Nico Hulkenberg has been faster than Kevin Magnussen for much of the year, but this is already reflected in market prices.
I don’t love picking one side between the two of them, and instead I will take Haas as the highest finisher outside of the top five teams.
