Check out the latest F1 odds and my Italian Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, September 1, with bets on Charles Leclerc, among others.
The Formula 1 World Championship is heating up as we head toward Round 16 in Monza for the Italian Grand Prix on Sunday (9 a.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN+).
Last weekend Lando Norris piloted his McLaren to a dominant win at the Dutch Grand Prix as McLaren closed the gap to just 30 points in the Constructor Standings. Norris is a bit further away in the driver standings and is still in second place, but he's 70 points behind Max Verstappen.
McLaren appears to have the best car on the grid at this point, but Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari are all right on their heels. The battle before the top four teams on the grid is more interesting than it has been in quite some time.
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Monza is one of the fastest tracks on the grid. This historic circuit features multiple long straights, making a low-drag setup preferred. This will be quite the change from last weekend, where we got largely the opposite at Zandvoort.
Norris has taken over Verstappen as the favorite to win at Monza. Drag is the main weakness of McLaren’s car, and while they have improved over the course of the season, it will be interesting to see the size of their advantage over the rest of the field.
Here are the current F1 odds to win the Italian Grand Prix as of Thursday and via DraftKings:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +110 |
| Max Verstappen | +225 |
| Oscar Piastri | +650 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1200 |
| George Russell | +1400 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1400 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +2200 |
| Sergio Perez | +6500 |
| Fernando Alonso | +20000 |
| Lance Stroll | +25000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +30000 |
| Alexander Albon | +30000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +30000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +30000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +40000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +40000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +40000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +40000 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +50000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +50000 |
F1 Odds: Italian Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Alpine Fastest Qualifiers Outside Top 5 Teams
Haas has gotten the shine for much of the year for being the low-drag car on the grid. They constantly have the fastest speed reached on straightaways, but they haven’t done as well turning that into positive finishes.
I do think that they will have a chance to shine at Monza this weekend, but there is another team that I think can challenge them that isn’t getting enough love in the market.
Alpine has brought an extremely low-drag win to the track this weekend to make up for their lack of power from their engine. The two Alpines were 10th and 11th in race pace in Spa, and I think they could potentially replicate this performance in Italy.
This team has been on the upswing. Pierre Gasly was able to score a ninth-place finish in the Netherlands and was the top finisher outside of the top five teams there.
One of the best F1 follows on Twitter, @FDataAnalysis, posted a plot showing the speed-trap speed distributions for all of the cars at Spa and explained how these stack up. As you can see, Esteban Ocon was the fastest on average at the end of the straight, and Alpine teammate Gasly was sixth. I do believe that Alpine has figured out how to compensate for their power issues and build a low-drag setup with a specialized wing.
Stroll strongly complained about his straight-line speed, yet he set the highest top speed in the race🤔
The reason? When in free air his top speed was low indeed. As he couldn't overtake, he got a powerful tow while using DRS, reaching 356km/hOcon's low-drag wing worked: he… pic.twitter.com/d3VOK7YbhK
— Formula Data Analysis (@FDataAnalysis) July 31, 2024
There is a chance that Alpine is reducing downforce too much by adding this extreme wing to their car in search of high-end speed, so for that reason, I like taking them better in qualifying rather than in the race.
I’ll sprinkle a bet on Alpine at +650 to be the fastest F1 qualifier outside of the top five teams. I believe they can compete on a similar level to the teams above them at this point in the season.
Cody Goggin's Pick: Alpine Qualifying Winner Without Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari, and Aston Martin (+650 at DraftKings, bet to +500)
Charles Leclerc Top 6
Among the teams at the top of the grid, Ferrari has the most straight-line speed in their car. This has been a weakness of the McLaren and Mercedes dating back to last year. They have improved these issues, but I still wouldn’t say it is a strength of theirs. I have more faith in Mercedes having corrected this issue than McLaren, and this may be a tough weekend for the Papaya team.
Ferrari started first and third here last year before finishing third and fourth behind the two Red Bulls. With Red Bull taking a step back, I think this is a prime opportunity for Ferrari to potentially compete toward the top of the podium this weekend.
Sainz was just a bit better here last year, but Leclerc has been in better form as of late. For this reason, Leclerc has shorter odds, and I would lean towards backing him, but I don’t hate the idea of backing either of them.
DraftKings has the most favorable pricing on the Ferrari drivers this weekend by far. I’m looking to take more small bets on Ferrari long shots here, as well as Leclerc in a matchup against Oscar Piastri.
Cody Goggin's Picks: Charles Leclerc over Oscar Piastri (-135 at BetMGM, bet to -150) | Leclerc race winner (+1400 at DraftKings, bet to +1200)
