Check out my F1 picks and predictions for the Mexican Grand Prix on Sunday, October 27.
The F1 Mexico City Grand Prix today (4 p.m. ET, ABC & ESPN+) takes us to the capital city of Mexico, where the drivers and teams will setup for the second straight weekend of action. Coming off of a Ferrari one-two finish and a somewhat controversial Max Verstappen podium at the USGP, the Constructors’ Championship race is a legitimate three-team race with five rounds to go.
Mexico's Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is a permanent track that sits at elevation – almost 1.4 miles above sea level, which makes this circuit one of the most unique challenges for drivers all season. Due to the thin air at altitude, the normal engineering rules typically seen at sea level do not apply. For example, teams will configure a high-downforce wing to balance out the reduced downforce applied by the thinner, less dense air at elevation.
The circuit features three DRS zones but only two DRS detection points due to the proximity of the first and second zones. The main straight, which is almost a mile long, would normally entice teams to go for a low downforce, maximum power setup, but this isn’t feasible due to the altitude of the track.
Qualifying on Saturday afternoon took place on a hot track where Carlos Sainz kept his cool in Q3 and took pole position for Sunday’s race. Conversely, Sergio Perez and Oscar Piastri failed to make it out of Q1 and will start near the back of the grid.
Verstappen, after having engine problems and floor problems all weekend leading up to qualifying, saved his best lap for last and will start P2 on the grid. One spot behind him is Lando Norris, who was the fastest driver in Q1 and Q2, while Sainz Ferrari teammate Charles Leclerc will start in P4. The Mercedes pair will start the race in P5 and P6 on the third row.
Here are the current F1 odds to win the Mexico City Grand Prix as of Sunday afternoon, via BetMGM:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carlos Sainz | +130 |
| Lando Norris | +225 |
| Max Verstappen | +400 |
| Charles Leclerc | +450 |
| George Russell | +2800 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +3300 |
| Oscar Piastri | +6600 |
| Sergio Perez | +25000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +25000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +50000 |
(Bet on the F1 Mexico City Grand Prix with our BetMGM promo code!)
F1 Picks & Predictions for Mexican Grand Prix
Winner From Second Row
Over the past five rounds this season, only McLaren and Ferrari have taken the checkered flag. More specifically, Lando Norris has two wins, and Charles Leclerc has two.
As mentioned previously, Norris was the quickest driver in Q1 and Q2 of qualifying, with a 1:16.505 and 1:16.301 fastest lap time respectively. Going back to free practice, McLaren were the top two cars in FP3.
As far as Leclerc goes, he was outqualified by Sainz, but he's coming off of a huge win in Austin last week and finished on the podium at last year's Mexico City Grand Prix. When comparing his finishes to pole sitter Sainz, Leclerc has finished ahead of him at every race since before the summer break, currently seven in a row.
It has been difficult this season for anyone on pole position to start and finish in P1 since Verstappen’s dominance subsided back in May. Carlos Sainz may have secured pole position with one flying lap in Q3, but the driver currently in fifth place in the championship hasn’t shown much in the way of top of the grid success: only one victory and one second-place finish thus far.
This pick is a unique bet with which you get two drivers for the price of one to win the race. Feel free to take a shot on the driver that you prefer, as both Norris and Leclerc are plus money to win the race individually. Verstappen has been fighting like tooth and nail to will his car to podiums lately, but he's not been in the winner’s circle for some time now. I see this race coming down to Norris or Leclerc at the top, and I will be holding a ticket on the pair to win this race.
Pick: 3rd or 4th Place – Grid Position of the Winner (1 unit, +140 on bet365)
Last Home Race for Checo?
The list of Mexican-born drivers in Formula 1’s history is small, and the list of those drivers with wins in F1 has only two names on it. The first name, with only two career wins, is Pedro Rodriguez, who – along with his brother Ricardo – are the Hermanos Rodriguez that is on the name of the track. The second name is Sergio “Checo” Perez with six career wins and 1,636 career points, making him – by far – the most successful driver from Mexico.
There are loud rumors swirling around Red Bull that they are actively pursuing drivers to replace Checo after this season. Whether or not that’s true, where there’s smoke, there is usually fire when you consider that Perez may be the reason Red Bull Racing loses out on the Constructors' Championship this season.
Should this be true, and Perez does not have a seat for next season, this would make the 2024 Mexico City Grand Prix his last home race of his illustrious career. The fans down in Mexico City will all be behind their native son, and I see this as an added motivation for the driver to put on a show in front of them one last time.
Unfortunately for Perez, he will start down in P18 after a disastrous Q1 session. There are not a whole lot of stats and numbers to back up this pick, other than he is driving a top team’s car and has taken points in 15 of the 19 races this season despite his poor qualifying record. I am going to be rooting alongside the home crowd this afternoon for one last drive to see how many cars Checo can overtake with a points/top-10 finish.
Pick: Sergio Perez – Points Finish (2 units, -175 on DraftKings)
