Check out the latest F1 odds and my Mexican Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, October 27.
This week the Formula 1 World Championship heads to Mexico City at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez for the 2024 Mexican Grand Prix.
Sunday's F1 Mexican Grand Prix (4 p.m. ET, ABC) is Round 20 for the season and will be one of just five remaining races in what has been an exciting campaign.
At last week’s United States Grand Prix, Ferrari took the top two spots on the podium and cemented themselves as contenders in the Constructor Standings. They are now only 48 points behind McLaren and 8 points behind Red Bull as this battle heats up.
My analysis of this race was wrong coming out of the extended break. I thought that McLaren, Max Verstappen and even possibly the Mercedes drivers would be faster than Ferrari. They proved me wrong, however, with the best race pace for any team on the grid with tire strategy being mostly equal.
Mexico is a less representative track than Austin and will see different cars succeed, however, which makes handicapping this sport interesting.
Due to the altitude, high drag will be less detrimental to performance while high downforce will be most important for success.
Here are the current F1 odds to win the Mexico City Grand Prix as of Friday, via DraftKings:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +250 |
| Charles Leclerc | +250 |
| Max Verstappen | +250 |
| Oscar Piastri | +800 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1200 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1400 |
| George Russell | +1600 |
| Sergio Perez | +5000 |
| Alexander Albon | +10000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +13000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +25000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +30000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +30000 |
| Liam Lawson | +30000 |
| Lance Stroll | +30000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +40000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +40000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +40000 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +50000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +50000 |
(Bet on the F1 Mexico City Grand Prix this weekend with our DraftKings promo code!)
F1 Odds With Mexico City Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
McLaren Back On Top
McLaren has excelled at high-downforce tracks this season, and their main weakness has been their high drag. With the altitude in Mexico City, this should improve their drag issues, making them even stronger despite the long straightaway.
Last weekend, Ferrari had the top two spots in terms of race pace, but Lando Norris ranked third and Oscar Piastri was fifth. These four drivers, along with Max Verstappen, were a step above everyone else in race pace and likely will be again this week.
I think McLaren should rightfully be the favorite at this track, but I also think that Ferrari will be able to challenge them, and I view these two teams as equals coming into the weekend.
Rather than playing McLaren outright, I would rather bet them in ways that aren’t reliant on them beating Ferrari. Instead, I think that taking Norris over Verstappen in a head-to-head matchup is a strong bet, even at -150, as Norris has been faster for most of the second half of this season.
I also think that Oscar Piastri is a good value as a pick to end up on the podium at +135. This would likely require beating at least one of the Ferrari drivers, but I believe that Piastri has plenty of speed and that his odds of accomplishing this should be lower than they are.
Picks: Lando Norris over Max Verstappen (-150 at BetMGM, bet to -160) | Oscar Piastri podium finish (+135 at DraftKings, bet to +125)
Liam Lawson vs Pierre Gasly
Liam Lawson continued to impress in his F1 return last weekend, finishing ninth after starting 19th on the grid. Lawson ranked 10th in race pace and was outrun only by the Haas cars in terms of the bottom five teams.
Last season we saw Daniel Riccardo qualify this car in fourth and finish in seventh in the Mexican GP. This RB vehicle has been strong this season in tracks requiring grip, and I think that they are one of the better teams from the back of the pack right now.
The same can’t be said for Alpine, which has consistently been one of the worst teams for much of the season. The French team had a renaissance in the middle of the season when they were competitive once again, but over the last handful of races, they have faded back again ahead of only Sauber.
At -190, these are steep odds to lay, but I like taking Lawson over Pierre Gasly in a head-to-head matchup this weekend. I took this bet last weekend at -175, and it worked like a charm, so I think going back to it is wise even with this increased price. Lawson is still setting out to prove his worth to Red Bull, and I think we could see another impressive outing from him in Mexico.
Pick: Liam Lawson over Pierre Gasly (-190 at BetMGM, bet to -200)
Haas Points Finish
I’ve doubted Haas for too long at this point. For a long time, I thought that they were only good in straight-line speed without much else. This hasn’t been the case for much of 2024 though, especially as of late.
Haas now likely has the most complete car from outside the top-five teams and have shown enough speed to challenge teams in the top 10. Last weekend the two Haas drivers finished eighth and 11th in the race while ranking eighth and ninth in race place, so this wasn’t a fluke by any means. They also picked up finishes of seventh and eighth in the sprint race Saturday, getting those last two points spots.
With the way they have been running lately, there’s a good chance that this performance is repeatable for Haas. At -105, I think that Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the top 10 is a valuable bet as it is closer to -130 at other books at the moment.
Picks: Nico Hulkenberg Top 10 finish (-105 at DraftKings, bet to -120)
