Check out the latest F1 odds and my Dutch Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, August 25, with bets on Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton.
Today's F1 Dutch Grand Prix at Circuit Zandvoort (9 a.m. ET, ESPN & ESPN+) kicks off the second half of the Formula 1 season after teams come off of a four-week summer break. This year of the F1 Dutch Grand Prix will be the 34th running, and it's the fourth of a five-year contract since 2021. The most recent three races have seen Max Verstappen take pole position and win the race in front of his home crowd.
The track at Zandvoort is the second shortest lap distance on the calendar, behind only Monaco. The F1 circuit features only four left-hand turns and 10 right-hand turns, which will greatly affect the tire degradation on one side of the car for these drivers.
One of the defining characteristics of Zandvoort is the high embankments – as steep as 18 degrees, which will favor teams such as McLaren and punish teams such as Ferrari coming out of the steep turns.
F1 qualifying on Saturday took place under cloud cover and a threat of rain, but it had an ever-evolving dry track that allowed the drivers to stay on the soft tires for all three qualifying sessions. After an uneventful Q1 session, both Carlos Sainz and Lewis Hamilton failed to make it out of Q2 and will start in the back half of the grid.
Getting into Q3 and starting in the top half of the grid was Alexander Albon of Williams and Pierre Gasly of Alpine. The only driver to put in a sub 1:10 lap time was Lando Norris (1:09.673 in Q3), who will start on pole position for the third time this season.
Next to Norris will be three-time defending world champion and Dutch Grand Prix winner Max Verstappen. Oscar Piastri of McLaren and George Russell of Mercedes will start the race behind the front men in P3 and P4, respectively.
F1 Odds With Dutch Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Value on Max Verstappen to Win
The pre-qualifying favorite to win the F1 Dutch Grand Prix on Sunday was Max Verstappen, just ahead of Lando Norris. Post-qualifying, the two drivers have swapped positions in the sportsbooks' eyes, with Max having the second-best odds to win the race. While Verstappen was 0.356 seconds slower than Norris during qualifying and was behind him during all three free practice sessions leading up to qualifying, the value at the top has flipped from the McLaren driver to the Red Bull driver.
This is as much a value play as it is looking at the recent history of this race as well as the 2024 season as a whole. There has not been a race winner who sat on pole position since May 26 at Monaco in Round 08.
The past six races have not been kind to pole sitters, at least when it comes to converting them into wins. One of the past six have had to retire the car, one missed the podium finishing P5, and the other four have all finished on the podium but not at the top. The average finishing position of the five pole sitters that finished the race was P3 over the six most recent rounds.
The takeaway here is not exactly a fade of Norris at the top, but instead, it's on the value of Verstappen starting on the front row and getting plus money to win the race. He hasn’t won a race since Spain a couple of months ago, also starting the race P2 on the grid.
Continuing with the “curse of pole position in 2024” theme, I’m backing Verstappen to overcome a sub-par weekend so far by Red Bull’s standards to take home the checkered flag.
Jono Rose's Pick: Max Verstappen – Race Winner (1 unit, +200 on DraftKings)
Lewis Hamilton Top 6 Charge
Lewis Hamilton, as mentioned before, failed to make it into Q3 on Saturday, and he's now been given a three-place grid penalty for impeding in Q1.
The veteran driver will start all the way down in P14 and have a ton of traffic and dirty air to drive through during the race.
This shouldn’t be a deterrent for bettors; there are countless examples of top drivers starting toward the back and making a charge up the grid and to finish in the top six. Hamilton will have two Haas cars right in front of him at the start – an RB Honda and an Alpine – to catch and overtake over the 72-lap race.
Looking at the times, Hamilton was right there during qualifying, finishing P5 in Q1 ahead of both Norris and Verstappen with a 1:11.375 lap time. There is still pace in the Mercedes that has won two of the last three races and has been on the podium in four of the last five.
If Lewis can survive the opening lap, the value of plus-money odds to finish top six is a great play at Zandvoort.
Jono Rose's Picks: Lewis Hamilton – Top 6 Finish (1 unit, +120 on ESPN Bet)
