Check out the latest F1 odds and my United States Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, October 20.
After a few weeks off, the 2024 Formula One World Championship heads to Texas for the US Grand Prix. This race takes place at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA), which is a proper circuit built outside of Austin.
This weekend will be a sprint race weekend, so there will be a single practice session followed by sprint qualifying on Friday. Then we'll have the sprint and qualifying on Saturday for Sunday’s official F1 US Grand Prix (ESPN, 3 p.m. ET).
COTA has a little bit of everything, and you need a good all-around car to be successful here. There is only one long straight and two DRS zones while there are also sections incorporating both high and low speed corners.
To succeed here, you will want to have a car that has enough downforce to be competitive through the first sector but also will have low enough drag that you are not going to lose time on the long straight.
McLaren has been the class of the field for the last handful of F1 races in Austin, but the break in the season makes it very difficult to tell who may make a jump in performance. McLaren has taken over Red Bull for the lead in the Constructor Standings with Ferrari in the picture as well. However, Max Verstappen still holds onto first place in the Driver Standings as Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri are all lurking in the distance.
Here are the current F1 odds to win the US Grand Prix as of Friday, via DraftKings:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | -110 |
| Oscar Piastri | +450 |
| Max Verstappen | +450 |
| Charles Leclerc | +850 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1400 |
| George Russell | +1800 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1800 |
| Sergio Perez | +5000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +25000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +25000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +25000 |
| Alexander Albon | +25000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +30000 |
| Liam Lawson | +30000 |
| Lance Stroll | +30000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +30000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +40000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +40000 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +50000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +50000 |
(Bet on the F1 US Grand Prix this weekend with our DraftKings promo code!)
F1 Odds With US Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Williams Winner Without
Williams has been impressive in the pack part of the pack as of late. Alex Albon and Franco Colapinto finished seventh and eighth in Baku before qualifying 11th and 12th in Singapore. This was a decent qualifying showing from them in Singapore before Colapinto finished in 11th and Albon was not able to finish.
Colapinto ranked 11th in race pace in Singapore and was 0.04 s/lap faster than Sergio Perez on the same tire strategy. He was outpaced only by Nico Hulkenberg and Yuki Tsunoda among the bottom five teams in this race. I’d expect these two teams to be the main competition for Williams in the mid-pack, but I think Williams has the best all-around car among the three at this point and will be extremely competitive.
I think that either Williams car will be good here, and the two drivers have been relatively equal since Colapinto joined the team. I like playing Williams at +150 as a team to be the race winner without the top five teams, but I also think that Colapinto is a value at +600 compared to his teammate Albon at +225.
Picks: Williams Winner Without Top 5 Teams (+150 at DraftKings) | Franco Colapinto Winner Without Top 5 Teams (+600 at DraftKings)
Liam Lawson's F1 Return
Liam Lawson made his Formula 1 debut last season on short notice following Daniel Ricciardo’s injury at Zandvoort. He filled in masterfully with a 13th-place finish after starting 19th. He proceeded to finish 11th or better in his next three races before a 17th-place finish in his final appearance of the 2023 season.
Not only did Lawson look good in general, but he finished higher than teammate Yuki Tsunoda in four of these five races. Lawson appears to be a good talent who is deserving of an F1 ride, and it seems like Red Bull would agree after jettisoning Ricciardo before the end of the season in order to keep Lawson around.
As mentioned above, I think that VCARB will be able to compete in the mid-pack this weekend and possibly end up in points finishing positions. I think that they should be more competitive than Alpine, who was the second-slowest team overall in Singapore.
While Pierre Gasly is certainly more experienced than Lawson and is likely the more talented driver, I think that Lawson has the superior car between the two of them and looked strong enough last season for me to trust him to get the most out of this car.
This is a heavy price to lay on Lawson in just his sixth F1 race, but I like backing the youngster at -175 in a head-to-head matchup against Gasly in Sunday’s race.
Pick: Liam Lawson over Pierre Gasly (-175 at BetMGM) | Bet to -185
Lewis Hamilton Top-4 Finish
McLaren and Max Verstappen should be the two favorites in this race with Ferrari and Mercedes on their heels. This is what is expected by the market as well, with the current odds following this same order.
I think that this could be a good track for Mercedes this weekend, though, due to a well-balanced car. Ferrari is extremely quick at a track like Baku, where their low drag can give them an advantage, but Mercedes looks to be the better car in the high downforce areas of the track, and I think they will succeed in sector 1 at COTA.
Mercedes still does have a low-drag car overall as Lewis Hamilton has the second-fastest top speed reached during the Singapore GP, and Mercedes had the fastest top speed in qualifying in Singapore, as well.
I like both Mercedes drivers this weekend, so you could take your pick between the two, but I’ll give the slight edge to Lewis with his history at COTA. My favorite way to play this bet is to take Hamilton at +165 to score a top-four finish in this race. With this bet, you can assume that Max and the McLarens take home the podium spots as this becomes more of a Ferrari vs. Mercedes vs. Perez bet – and I’m looking to take Mercedes in this battle.
Picks: Lewis Hamilton Top 4 Finish (+165 at DraftKings) | Bet to +150
