Check out the latest F1 odds and my Dutch Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, August 25, with bets on Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc, among others.
After a few weeks for F1’s summer break, we return this weekend to the track for the F1 Dutch Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN). This is the home race for reigning F1 world champion Max Verstappen and a track he is quite fond of. Verstappen has won all three races held here since F1 made its return to the track following a 35-year hiatus.
Last year’s Dutch GP was affected by wet weather conditions. Rain started just after the drop of the green flag and caused chaos as the downpour intensified quickly. Even with the shake-ups across the grid, the 2023 Dutch GP still saw Verstappen take the win and his ninth consecutive victory, tying Sebastian Vettel’s record.
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This season we come out of the break with Verstappen still leading the championship standings, but he has lost ground as of late as both McLaren and Mercedes have been challenging Red Bull over the last couple of months. This has resulted in a four-race winless streak for Max in which Mercedes has won three times and McLaren once.
Verstappen is still the favorite to win at Zandvoort, but Lando Norris is right on his heels. This circuit features some of the steepest banked corners in F1 and is tough on tires, resulting in Pirelli bringing the hardest compounds this weekend. The lack of straightaways and the number of corners will help McLaren most as I believe they will have the car best suited for this weekend.
Here are the current F1 odds to win the Belgian Grand Prix as of Thursday and via DraftKings:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +165 |
| Lando Norris | +175 |
| Oscar Piastri | +550 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +850 |
| George Russell | +1100 |
| Charles Leclerc | +2000 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +2800 |
| Sergio Perez | +3500 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +10000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +25000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +25000 |
| Alexander Albon | +25000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +30000 |
| Lance Stroll | +30000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +30000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +30000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +40000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +40000 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +50000 |
| Logan Sargeant | +50000 |
F1 Odds: Dutch Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Lando Norris to Win
As I mentioned above, I think McLaren should be the class of the field this weekend. Now, it’s always hard to project where teams are following summer break, but based on what we have seen most recently, they should be tough to beat at this track type.
McLaren’s high drag will not cause the team as big of an issue this weekend due to the lack of long straightaways at Zandvoort.
Additionally, their strengths in high speed cornering should show up and help them as compared to Red Bull, who has a more balanced car.
Hungary is one of the closest recent comparisons for Zandvoort. In that race, McLaren smashed the field and took home the top two spots on the podium.
This expectation is already baked into most markets as both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have minus odds to score a podium finish, and there isn’t a ton of value out there in general. However, I do think it is worth taking a shot on Norris to win the race.
At the time of this writing, you can find the bet out there at +200 odds at some sportsbooks, with the second-best odds to win the race behind Verstappen, even though I believe he should be the favorite to win the race. This isn’t a smash bet with which there’s absurd value, but if you shop around and find a good line, I think this line is worth taking.
Cody Goggin's Pick: Lando Norris to win (+200 at Caesars Sportsbook) | Bet to +180
Charles Leclerc Top 6
Mercedes and Red Bull are being grouped together as the next-best teams on the grid, but I think that Ferrari has been closer to these two lately than many are talking about.
The two Ferrari drivers ranked fourth and sixth in race pace at Belgium in the most recent race. Just before that at a more comparable track in Hungary, they were fourth and sixth, as well. In Sunday's race, Charles Leclerc was 0.01 s/lap faster than Verstappen and only 0.06 s/lap slower than Lewis Hamilton. Carlos Sainz was only barely off their pace as well, with a median lap time just 0.01 s/lap slower than Verstappen.
I see a couple of different ways to back the Ferrari drivers in this race that I think could be valuable. The lower-risk bet to take would be for Leclerc to finish in the top six at -175, He's been the fastest of the two Ferrari drivers, and I’m confident in his ability to get this done.
I also think there is some value to be found out there on both drivers to potentially make the podium. You can get Sainz to make a podium as high as 9/1 (+900), but with Leclerc’s recent form over Sainz, I’ll opt to take him at to score a podium finish at a smaller unit size than the podium bet. Hard Rock Sportsbook has a market-best +700 for a Leclerc podium finish, and FanDuel is right behind at +650.
Cody Goggin's Picks: Charles Leclerc Top 6 finish (-175 at ESPN BET, bet to -200) | Charles Leclerc podium finish (+700 at Hard Rock, bet to +550)
Racing Bulls Best of Bottom 5
Haas has emerged as one of the top teams in the back of the pack this season, ranking seventh in the Constructor Standings. Their main opponent in these points battles have been the Racing Bulls of Yuki Tsunoda and Daniel Ricciardo.
Haas has the best low-drag car on the grid, which was a big help in Belgium. But it won’t provide them much benefit here. Instead, I believe that Team RB will have an advantage here and be the best of the rest.
At Hungary, Tsunoda ranked 11th in race pace and Ricciardo was 12th. There was still a gap between them and the Aston Martins, but they were the quickest team outside of the top five.
I believe that RB will be able to replicate this success at a similar track. Right now, they are slight favorites over Haas to be the racing-winning team outside of the top five, and I would take them at +120.
Additionally, these drivers should largely be viewed as equals in speed in my opinion, but Tsundo is tied with Hulkenberg at +185 to be the highest-finishing driver outside the top five teams while Ricciardo is only +550. With this large of a gap between the teammates, I also will be taking a shot on Ricciardo beating out his teammate and the other drivers in the mid-pack.
Cody Goggin's Picks: Racing Bulls Race Winning Car Without Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari & Aston Martin (+120 at DraftKings, bet to +110) | Daniel Ricciardo Race Winner Without Red Bull, McLaren, Mercedes, Ferrari & Aston Martin (+550 at DraftKings, bet to +250)
