Check out the latest F1 odds and Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, May 19.
We have now reached Round 7 of the 2024 F1 World Championship. Sunday's race is the F1 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN2 and ESPN+), one of two races in Italy on the calendar.
Here are the F1 odds for Sunday's Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix outright winner, as of Thursday and via FanDuel:
- Max Verstappen: -400
- Lando Norris: +750
- Charles Leclerc: +1400
- Sergio Perez: +1600
- Carlos Sainz Jr.: +3000
- Oscar Piastri: +3600
- Lewis Hamilton: +8000
- George Russell: +8000
- Fernando Alonso: +11000
- Lance Stroll: +30000
- Nico Hulkenberg: +42000
- Yuki Tsunoda: +42000
- Alexander Albon: +42000
- Valtteri Botas: +42000
- Kevin Magnussen: +42000
- Daniel Ricciardo: +42000
- Pierre Gasly: +42000
- Zhou Guanyu: +42000
- Esteban Ocon: +42000
- Logan Sargeant +42000
During the most recent race weekend in Miami, we saw Lando Norris score the first win of his career and only the second win this season for a non-Red Bull driver. This can be attributed in part to a timely safety car and Verstappen sustaining some damage, but the McLaren driver was already the fastest car on the track just before this happened.
While Red Bull still has a step up on the field, their advantage appears to be shrinking a bit. There is now a clear delineation between the top three teams and the rest of the field. Ferrari and McLaren are both on the heels of Red Bull as the rest of the mid-pack has separated from these squads.
This weekend’s race will take place at Imola. This is one of the most historic tracks on the circuit and requires a largely balanced car to succeed. These three teams all fit this mold and will be battling it out at the front of the pack.
Weather is not expected to be an issue this weekend as it often can be at Imola. Last year’s grand prix here was canceled due to historic flooding, and this track has a long history of wet weather races. However, there is little to no chance of rain for this upcoming weekend.
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F1 Odds: Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Carlos Sainz Podium
Ferrari and McLaren are close to each other, but I think that Lando Norris’ run at Miami may have skewed the odds too far in their favor. I still believe that Ferrari has the second best car on the grid at most tracks, including this one.
Lando himself even backed this up by stating this week, “We need more if we want to challenge Ferrari more consistently.” And when asked about where he would place McLaren, he replied, “We’re third.”
Ferrari’s lower drag should help them on the long straightaway here and give them an advantage in passing over the McLaren’s higher drag, which is more suited for tracks such as Miami or the upcoming Monaco GP.
Sainz has been uber-consistent all season and may even be the better of the two Ferrari drivers right now. His podium price differs widely across books, but you can find a +275 on him to podium at DraftKings, which I believe provides good value as Sainz stands a good chance of battling for these podium positions behind Verstappen.
The Pick: Carlos Sainz Podium Finish (+275 at DraftKings, bet to +230)
Betting on the Alpine Rebound
After starting the year at the very back of the grid, Alpine appears to finally be rebounding back toward the mid-pack.
In Miami, Esteban Ocon scored Alpine’s first point of the season with a 10th-place finish while Pierre Gasly finished 12th. Looking at the race pace of these cars, the best Alpine car had the 10th-best race pace in the spring last weekend and 13th in the grand prix.
This improvement is not limited to just Miami. The best Alpine ranked ninth in race pace at China after being the two worst cars on the grid at Japan. Maybe this is just a fake out, but it appears to me that this team is heading in the right direction with their recent upgrades.
I am looking to back Alpine two ways this week: one as a long shot and one as a favorite. I think that there is some value in betting Alpine at +750 to be the winning team without the top five. I also think that they may have a leg up on Williams, who has been regressing this season.
I touched on this a bit last race as I picked Yuki Tsunoda over Alex Albon, which proved to be true as the Racing Bulls were better than Williams all weekend long. Williams didn’t do anything to change my mind as Albon was 16th in race pace at Miami after being 15th in China. Alpine should still have a slight advantage here this weekend in my opinion, making this a worthy bet.
As for the longer shot, Racing Bulls and Haas both have much shorter odds, but I think Alpine will perform closer to this tier of teams this weekend than they will to Sauber and Williams. For that reason, I like taking just a small bet on them with long odds.
