Check out the latest F1 odds and Hungarian Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, July 21, with bets on Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc, among others.
After a thrilling British GP and a week off, we head to Budapest this Sunday for the F1 Hungarian Grand Prix (9 a.m. ET, ESPN & ESPN+). The battle at the top of the grid is heating up as Red Bull have taken a step back while the likes of McLaren and Mercedes are closing the gap. This is Round 13 of a 24-race F1 season and the penultimate race before summer break, so there is still plenty of time for these teams to make a run at the championship.
Hungary probably has the most slow corners of any non-street circuit on the schedule. The numerous slow and medium corners make downforce highly important while issues with drag aren’t a huge deal due to having only one main straight.
Because of this, there isn’t a lot of passing in Hungary, so qualifying is extra important, as we'll see in the post-qualification F1 odds later this week. Last year’s version of the race saw Max Verstappen win by 33.7 seconds over Lando Norris. While I don’t think the gap will be as large this year, these two drivers should both continue to be in contention for a win.
Verstappen is still the odds-on favorite to win the F1 Hungarian Grand Prix on Sunday, but other drivers getting into the mix seems to be more possible than most thought at the beginning of the season. Here are the current F1 odds to win the Hungarian Grand Prix as of Thursday and via BetMGM:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | +100 |
| Lando Norris | +300 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +650 |
| George Russell | +650 |
| Oscar Piastri | +1200 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1800 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +2200 |
| Sergio Perez | +6600 |
| Fernando Alonso | +10000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +15000 |
| Lance Stroll | +40000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +50000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +50000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +50000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +50000 |
| Alexander Albon | +50000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +100000 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +150000 |
| Logan Sargeant | +200000 |
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F1 Odds: Hungarian Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Lando Norris vs Max Verstappen
Lando Norris had the British GP right in his lap. If he had made the correct call on tires, then we would have seen him win by a decent gap. Instead, the team left the decision to Norris, and he made the wrong one, causing him to give up the win in an exciting ending.
I believe that McLaren should have an edge over Red Bull in Hungary and may have the fastest car this weekend overall. They do well with high-downforce corners, and their drag won’t be a detriment to them, which may make them the favorites to win this race.
Oscar Piastri has also been strong lately. He was right with Norris at Silverstone and outran him in the sprint race in Austria. Piastri also finished higher than Norris at Monaco, which shares many similarities to this circuit.
I could take Norris to win the race overall, but due to the threat of his teammate and the likes of Mercedes, I’ll instead take him in a head-to-head matchup over Max Verstappen. I think that McLaren’s car should just be better here and Verstappen may struggle this weekend, giving Norris the edge in this H2H matchup in which he is currently an underdog.
The Picks: Lando Norris over Max Verstappen (+150 at BetMGM) | Bet to +125
Ferrari Still Hanging Around
We seem to have written off Ferrari from contention among the top group of teams due to poor performance in recent weeks. However, this track may actually play to their strength since they won’t have to deal with their high-speed bouncing issues anymore.
As I mentioned before, this track has multiple slow corners and is great for cars with good downforce. The track most recently similar to this was Monaco, where Charles Leclerc got the win and Carlos Sainz finished on the podium with a third-place finish.
The problem is that now the competition above them is so tight, Ferrari may have a great race and still not be able to make it onto the podium.
The safest way to play this is longer odds, but I like taking Charles Leclerc to score a top 6 finish at -200. If you’re more confident than that, you could opt to take his podium odds, but I think there is enough heavy competition that I’ll play this conservatively.
The Picks: Charles Leclerc Top 6 Finish (-200 at DraftKings) | Bet to -210
Winning Margin Over
Over the last month, we have seen many thrilling races come down to tight battles at the end. For this reason, as the distance between the top teams on the grid has shrunk, I have been all over the unders on winning-margin bets at some of these tracks.
Now, though, I think Caesars Sportsbook has gone too far back in the other direction. Last year, Verstappen won this race by 33.7 seconds with only nine cars finishing on the lead lap. Hungary is not a track that has many safety cars to shrink up the field, and there isn’t any risk of rain this weekend as of this writing.
While the field has gotten much closer together, 4.5 seconds is nothing really when it comes to a gap in F1. There’s a chance of it happening as these teams battle it out, but I think there is a much larger chance of the winner of this race being able to pull out to a modest lead with a low probability of a safety car.
