Check out the latest F1 odds and my United States Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, October 20.
Today's F1 US Grand Prix (3 p.m. ET, ABC & ESPN+) brings us back from a month-long fall break and into the first of a three-pack of race weekends over in the Western Hemisphere. The grid will return to Austin for the 12th time at the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) following a sprint race weekend to go along with the race on Sunday.
COTA is a permanent racing facility, built specifically to host Formula One racing, and it opened back in 2012. It's a high-speed track known for its 133-foot climb from the starting grid going into Turn 1, as well as a sequence of back-and-forth corners nicknamed the COTA esses.
The circuit outside of Austin, Texas, features two DRS zones: one down the long straight between turns 11 and 12, and the second right after turn 20 at the start of the home straight. The track requires a medium-downforce setup, one that allows the car to maintain speed through the esses but doesn’t sacrifice too much performance down the back straight.
F1 is currently three-quarters of the way through this 24-round world championship season. While McLaren has surpassed Red Bull in the constructors race, Max Verstappen maintains his double-digit lead on the drivers side of the championship.
After taking the sprint race victory from pole, Verstappen extended his lead by two points over Lando Norris to 54 points with six rounds and two sprint races to go.
Qualifying on Saturday afternoon took place under the warm Texas sunshine on asphalt that is quite punishing on the soft compound tires. It is important to remember that while each qualifying session is a one-lap ordeal, the race will be run on the medium- and hard-compound tires that the drivers will need to look after throughout.
It was a tough afternoon for the pair of Mercedes drivers. Five-time USGP race winner Lewis Hamilton was knocked out in Q1, and his teammate George Russell crashed in Q3. The crash in Sector 3 caused the double yellow flags to come out and forced all drivers at the end of the Q3 session to abort their flying lap and the times on the board to remain final.
Norris will start on pole for the second race in a row Max Verstappen on the front row next to him starting in P2. The Ferraris will start on the second row with Oscar Piastri down in P5 and George Russell in P6.
Here are the top F1 odds to win the US Grand Prix as of Sunday midday, via DraftKings:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -150 |
| Lando Norris | +215 |
| Carlos Sainz | +700 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1000 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2500 |
| George Russell | +6500 |
| Sergio Perez | +15000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +20000 |
(Bet on the F1 US Grand Prix this weekend with our DraftKings promo code!)
F1 Odds With Picks & Predictions
Opening Lap Curse on Pole?
Watching replays of the previous three United States Grand Prix races, one thing on the opening lap stood out.
The short run-up to the first corner at the top of the hill favors the inside line over the outside line. Unfortunately for the pole sitter, P1 starts on the right (outside) of the home straight whereas P2 starts on the inside of the lane.
Max Verstappen will start just behind and to the left of Lando Norris, and he will have the inside track to overtake Norris running up to the first turn.
There is a high probability that Verstappen is able to get close enough to Norris by Turn 1 to force Lando wide and overtake him immediately on the opening lap.
Jono's Pick: Max Verstappen – Leader after the 1st Lap (1 unit, +150 at bet365)
Front Row, Start to Finish
Lando Norris posted a 1:32.330 lap time in Q3 to secure pole position at COTA. During the sprint race, he jumped immediately up to P2 from P4 on the first corner at the top of the hill. He was unable to chase down Max Verstappen and ultimately was overtaken by Carlos Sainz to settle for P3 and the six points from the sprint race.
Does a driver's sprint race final position have any predictive value on the actual race results? Looking into the data from the 2024 season, there is only a 0.23 r squared correlation factor when running regression analysis comparing the sprint results to the race results on the same weekend.
This is likely due to the rule change with which there is a separate sprint qualification session as opposed to years past when the sprint race results determined the starting grid.
Looking at the data from Rounds 01 through 18 this season, there is a 0.57 r squared value when comparing starting grid spot to finishing position in the race. Very basically, r squared is a statistical measure that defines the proportion of variance in a dependent variable that can be explained by an independent variable. In this case, 57% of the variance of a race in 2024 can be explained by the starting grid.
Circling back to Norris: Starting on pole position has more predictive value than his P3 finish in the sprint race. Verstappen is the betting favorite to win the race – and rightfully so with his performance thus far. But there is value in taking Norris to finish in the top 2. Since the start of the 2018 season, the pole sitter has finished in the top two spots just under 70% of the time (implied odds of -233).
Jono's Pick: Lando Norris – Top 2 Finish (1 unit, -110 on bet365)
Ferrari Podium Fade
Carlos Sainz is out of favor with Ferrari. Lewis Hamilton is taking his seat for next season, and Sainz is driving to prove to the team that they made the wrong decision.
He and teammate Charles Leclerc went wheel-to-wheel for several laps during the sprint race as Sainz was finally able to pass Leclerc and finish in P2 during the 19-lap sprint race.
While Sainz will start one spot ahead of Leclerc when the lights go out, the splits during race qualifying were within 0.088 seconds of each other on the soft tires. A more accurate data set could come from sprint qualifying in SQ1 and SQ2 when the entire grid was on the medium tires that will be used for the race. For reference, Leclerc finished two spots ahead of Sainz in sprint qualifying, including 0.462 seconds ahead of his teammate in SQ1.
The play to me is to fade Sainz at COTA and take his odds at plus money to not finish on the podium. The success during the sprint qualifying doesn’t sway my belief that his pace and tires won’t last over the 56 laps in the fall heat of Texas. I also favor Leclerc to have the better race pace and to be able to overtake his teammate either in the pits or out on the track.
Jono's Picks: Carlos Sainz, Top 3 Finish – No (1 unit, +115 at BetMGM) | Charles Leclerc over Sainz (1 unit, -106 at BetRivers)
