Check out the latest F1 odds and my Brazilian Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on Sunday, November 3.
Round 21 of the 2024 Formula 1 World Championship will be the last leg of a tripleheader as the circuit will take a trip to Autodromo José Carlos Pace in Sao Paulo, Brazil, for the Brazil Grand Prix.
Just four races remain in the season as battles remain close atop the grid. With a Carlos Sainz win at Mexico, Ferrari has now pulled within 29 points of McLaren in the Constructor’s Standings, with Red Bull sitting 54 points out of the lead and facing an uphill battle to come back.
Max Verstappen still holds a 47-point lead in the Driver’s Championship Standings and stands a good chance to come out victorious, but just one or two mistakes could cause Lando Norris or Charles Leclerc to catch him from behind.
Verstappen received harsh penalties for his aggressive driving last weekend and will need to be careful to avoid further penalties the rest of this season. He will also start this weekend at a disadvantage with a five-place grid penalty for replacing a power unit this race.
This weekend will feature another sprint, so practice and sprint qualifying will take place on Friday before the sprint and qualifying for the grand prix on Saturday.
Weather is expected to be a factor this weekend as there is a 47% chance of rain during Saturday’s qualifying and 77% chance during the race Sunday at time of this writing. This circuit experiences a microclimate where rain can be on and off, so this may make strategy interesting and shake up the field.
Interlagos features many banked corners that require medium to high speeds, which should favor McLaren and their high downforce. There is just one straight of medium length and then one long straightaway coming to the finish line where McLaren’s drag may impact them negatively.
This is set to be a two-stop race with softer tyre compounds than were brought here a year ago as Pirelli will be bringing the C3-C4-C5 compounds. This is a neutral track in terms of tyre stress, abrasiveness, and brake stress but with 71 laps, the two-stop strategy would be preferred in dry conditions.
F1 Odds With Brazil Grand Prix Picks & Predictions
Here are the current F1 odds to win the Brazil Grand Prix as of Friday, via DraftKings:
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lando Norris | +215 |
| Charles Leclerc | +265 |
| Carlos Sainz | +285 |
| Max Verstappen | +650 |
| Oscar Piastri | +700 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +1800 |
| George Russell | +1800 |
| Sergio Perez | +6500 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +25000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +25000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +25000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +25000 |
| Alexander Albon | +25000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +30000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +40000 |
| Liam Lawson | +40000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +40000 |
| Lance Stroll | +40000 |
| Zhou Guanyu | +50000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +50000 |
(Bet on the F1 Brazil Grand Prix this weekend with our DraftKings promo code!)
McLaren vs Ferrari
This weekend clearly has two top favorites. McLaren and Ferrari have separated themselves from Mercedes and Verstappen’s Red Bull as they should be the four fastest cars. In Mexico, Norris was only 0.05 s/lap off of Sainz in terms of race pace and his fastest laps were faster, but his slowest laps were also slower as there was more variance in his times.
The same can be said for Piastri as well, as his fastest laps on the same strategy were better than both Sainz and Leclerc, but his slow laps in traffic held him up as he was driving from the rear of the field.
I believe that the track this weekend is best suited to McLaren but Ferrari’s strength as of late has been undeniable. These four drivers should be able to fight among the top four positions on the grid without much competition, especially with Verstappen’s grid penalty.
While I don’t like fading Ferrari, I think that Norris should be the favorite in this race and I would take a chance on him at +215 to be the victor as this track suits McLaren’s car well and Lando is well-versed at racing in the rain, which should also favor McLaren.
I’d pair this with a safer bet that both McLaren cars finish in the top six at -230. I don’t see competition coming from behind and think that these four drivers will end up being the top four finishers in some order barring any unforeseen circumstances.
Picks: Lando Norris to Win (+215 at DraftKings, bet to +200) | McLaren Double Top 6 Finish (-230 at DraftKings, bet to -240)
Liam Lawson vs Yuki Tsunoda
Liam Lawson is currently priced as an underdog in the head-to-head matchup with his teammate Yuki Tsunoda this weekend, but the way that Lawson has driven since coming into F1 suggests that he should not be taken lightly.
In Lawson’s maiden Formula 1 stint last year for this same team he finished higher than Tsunoda in four of his five chances.
Tsunoda has qualified ahead of Lawson in both races that Lawson has competed in this season. Tsunoda was 0.033 seconds faster in Q2 in Mexico last weekend, but Lawson was 0.456 seconds quicker than Tsunoda at COTA in Q1 before not putting up a lap and taking a grid penalty in Q2.
Despite starting 19th at COTA, Lawson rallied to finish 9th while Tsunoda dropped backwards from 10th to 14th. Lawson was 0.38s/lap faster than Tsunoda in this race, which is a pretty sizable gap between two cars on the same team.
Lawson was only 14th in race pace in Mexico but suffered some damage that slowed him down following some contact with Perez earlier in the race. Tsunoda crashed out on the first lap so we don’t have a good frame of reference from the most recent race, which I think also helps to influence this line.
Lawson has now finished higher than Tsunoda in six of his seven career races and I don’t see anything to suggest that he should be the underdog in this matchup. With both of these drivers vying for a potential seat at Red Bull, competition will be tight and I like taking Lawson to end up on top.
Pick: Liam Lawson over Yuki Tsunoda (+115 at BetMGM, bet to -105)
Haas Points Finish
Haas has emerged as the fastest car in the mid-pack over the last number of weeks. In Mexico City they ranked 8th and 9th in race pace, even beating out Sergio Perez. Hulkenberg was the slower of the two Haas cars and still was 0.28s/lap faster than the next closest mid-pack car in Pierre Gasly.
This hasn’t just been a one-week trend either as Haas was also 8th and 9th in race pace in the United States Grand Prix and only 0.02s/lap behind Sergio Perez.
At this point, Haas is probably the 5th-fastest team on the grid and I think they once again have a good shot at scoring points in this race. This track isn’t suited to their exact strengths so I don’t expect them to fully challenge Red Bull and Mercedes much, but Haas should be in position to have another good weekend. Hulkenberg to score a top ten finish is currently -140 at DraftKings while it's closer to -185 elsewhere, so I would grab this better price while it's still available.
Picks: Nico Hulkenberg Top 10 finish (-140 at DraftKings, bet to -150)
