Check out the F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix odds and expert predictions and picks for Saturday, March, 9, and the second race of the 2024 Formula 1 season.
Less than one week removed from a Max Verstappen grand slam in Bahrain, we stay in the Middle East and head from the Persian Gulf to the eastern coast of the Red Sea.
The fourth running of the F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix takes place Saturday at noon ET (9 a.m. PT), and it's available on ESPN2 and ESPN+ from the Jeddah Corniche Circuit, the first street circuit on the F1 calendar this year.
The track characteristics allow drivers to open up their cars to full throttle for roughly 75% of the lap. It is the second-longest circuit on the F1 calendar and has the most turns (27). It has been described as a mix of Spa and Monaco, where it is extremely narrow between the barriers but drivers can rocket around the track at an average speed exceeding 157 mph.
Qualifying took place on Friday, and continuing to dominate at the head of the grid, Verstappen posted the fastest times in all three qualifying sessions. He secured pole position for the first time in his career at this race track, qualifying P1 with a time of 1:27.472. Just like last week, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc will start on the front row next to Max in P2.
Here are the post-qualifying F1 Saudi Arabian odds as of Saturday, via BetMGM:
- Max Verstappen: -900
- Sergio Perez: +700
- Charles Leclerc: +1000
- George Russell: +4000
- Fernando Alonso: +4000
- Lando Norris: +5000
- Oscar Piastri: +5000
One of the headline stories from this weekend is that Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz Jr. will miss the race due to appendicitis. It sounds like Friday's surgery was successful and he will make a full recovery.
That means that reserve driver Oliver Bearman, the 18-year-old British driver, will make his F1 debut on Saturday. The kid performed well in qualifying, earning a place in Q2 and narrowly missing out on qualifying for Q3 (0.064 seconds). He will start P11 on the grid.
Behind the front row of the starting grip will be Sergio Perez in P3 and Fernando Alonso in P4. Behind them will be the two McLarens with Oscar Piastri edging out his teammate for P5 and Lando Norris down in P6.
The two Mercedes drivers will start on the fourth row of the grid, with George Russell qualifying ahead of Lewis Hamilton once again to start the 2024 season.
Here are my F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix predictions after qualifying for Saturday's race.
F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix Odds & Predictions
McLaren vs Mercedes Head-to-Head
With Red Bull off to a great start and Ferrari fighting right behind them, it looks like the battle for third place will take place between McLaren and Mercedes this season in the World Constructors’ Championship. The first-round battle went Mercedes' way as Russell finished the highest of the four drivers – in P5 last week at Bahrain.
Mercedes has 16 championship points whereas McLaren have 12.
Looking at the practice times in Jeddah as well as the qualifying times for these two teams’ drivers, it appears this race will be just as close between the McLaren-Mercedes car and the Mercedes car on race day. As mentioned above, Piastri and Norris will start P5 and P6. Directly behind them, Russell and Hamilton will start P7 and P8.
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In Free Practice 3, Russell and Norris were a mere James Bond (0.007) seconds apart, with Russell slightly edging out his fellow Brit. While those two were up in P4 and P5, Piastri and Hamilton were also connected after the practice session, down in P8 and P9.
I see a lot of value in taking the McLaren duo head-to-head against the pacey Russell and seven-time world champion driver Hamilton. I think this line is wrong, especially after a better qualifying session for both Norris and Piastri.
The potential concern for this bet lies more with Piastri than Norris, but I believe that Piastri will be able to keep up with his teammate – perhaps even stay in front of the two Mercedes. Piastri is no longer a rookie driver, and he was quicker than Nando in all three qualifying sessions.
The Pick: Head-to-Head – McLaren Over Mercedes (1 unit, +100 on BetMGM)
Points for the Debutant
Stepping in for the unavailable Sainz at Ferrari will be up-and-coming Formula 2 driver (also the Ferrari reserve driver for situations exactly like this) Oliver Bearman out of Chelmsford, United Kingdom. The young driver will have to adjust on the fly to a heavier, more powerful car than what he was racing down in F2.
Despite the challenges he faces, it appears that he has handled them all really well so far. Coming in for just one practice session, Bearman was able to finish P10 over 22 laps during FP3, only down three spots from where Sainz was compared to the field on Thursday. Oliver Bearman will start P11 on the grid after a great qualifying session.
Oliver Bearman is set to make his F1 debut stepping in for Carlos Sainz.
Carlos has been diagnosed with appendicitis and will require surgery.
Get well soon Carlos 🙏#F1#SaudiArabianGPpic.twitter.com/STXRHNgTDu
— Formula 1 (@F1) March 8, 2024
Looking at the history of recent drivers making their F1 debuts, three very recently have scored points in their inaugural race. Yuki Tsunoda was able to finish in ninth place after starting P13 on the grid in 2021. The following year, Zhou Guanyu finished 10th from a starting grid spot of P15. Also, during the 2022 season, Nyck de Vries was able to finish ninth after starting P8 in his first F1 race.
I expect that in a superior car to a majority of the field, the great starting position, and with positive history on his side, Oliver Bearman will be able to hold it together and finish in the top 10, scoring points in his debut race at the F1 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
Let’s not forget: Even the driver that Bearman replaces this week was able to secure ninth place in the first race of his career.
The Pick: Oliver Bearman – Top 10 (1 unit, +115 via ESPNBET)
