After a weekend off, the F1 circuit this week kicks off a stretch of three straight weekends with an event. This week we head to Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, for the F1 US Grand Prix on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, ABC).
This will be another sprint race weekend, so we will see just the one practice session on Friday followed by qualifying for Sunday’s race with the sprint race and sprint qualifying both on Saturday.
Max Verstappen and Red Bull have already secured both the Drivers' Championship and the Constructors' Championship. However, the race in the next tier is still tight between Mercedes and Ferrari, as well as Aston Martin vs. McLaren.
With just a handful of races left on the calendar, this two-event weekend could go a long way toward determining the final standings, making this a very important event for these teams to get right.
The first sector of this track is full of tight, high-speed corners, which would be a plus for teams like Mercedes and McLaren. The rest of the track, though, has a lot more long straights, which helps out teams that have low drag, such as Ferrari.
The track being this balanced overall makes this weekend all the more interesting as I believe the gap between these second-tier teams will be smaller than it has been in the last couple of race weekends.
It's #F1 race week in Austin! 🤠
↔️ High but even lateral stress
🏁 #F1Sprint is back#Fit4F1pic.twitter.com/5FnKQo4H9a— Pirelli Motorsport (@pirellisport) October 16, 2023
Above is Pirelli’s graphic they post each week regarding the track type and stress factors it puts on the tires.
COTA appears to be largely similar to Suzuka, where we were just a couple of races ago.
F1 US Grand Prix Odds and Picks
Expect Ferrari Strong Pace
We saw Ferrari run well at Suzuka, showing plenty of pace and as the third-best team on the grid. I think that we will see similar results from them here as well since this track is more suited to their strengths than the last month has been.
This is one of the lowest-drag cars on the grid and will be strong on the straightaways. They have shown the last couple of weeks that they fixed the tire degradation issues that plagued them early on this season as well.
Both Ferrari drivers are threats to the podium this weekend and are being heavily undervalued at FanDuel.
LeClerc is +650 for a podium there while Sainz is +700, but they are both +500 or worse elsewhere.
At DraftKings you can also bet Ferrari to have a double top-six finish at +165, which I believe is another strong bet.
I expect both Ferraris to be contenders in the top part of the grid, and we may see them have a very good weekend.
The Picks: Charles LeClerc Podium Finish (+650 at FanDuel) | Ferrari Double Top 6 Finish (+175 at bet365)
Lando Norris on Podium
The improvement from McLaren this year has been insane.
At the very start of the season, it looked like they were completely done. However, they have made enormous leaps in the development of this car to bring it up to potentially the second-best one on the grid.
This was on display last weekend as Oscar Piastri came out victorious in the sprint race and both McLarens landed on the podium in the Qatar Grand Prix.
I think that we see a similar result from McLaren once again as they will be competitive at COTA.
At BetMGM you can find Lando Norris at -140 for a podium finish, which is the best price available on the market right now. Lando will once again be competitive and running toward the front of the grid, making this a no-brainer pick for me.
