Odds to Win 2021 Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix
| Driver | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 110 | 47.62% |
| Max Verstappen | 180 | 35.71% |
| Sergio Perez | 550 | 15.38% |
| Valtteri Bottas | 3000 | 3.23% |
| Lando Norris | 3300 | 2.94% |
| Charles Leclerc | 4000 | 2.44% |
| Pierre Gasly | 6000 | 1.64% |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 7000 | 1.4% |
| Carlos Sainz Jr | 15000 | 0.6% |
| EstebanOcon | 40000 | 0.22% |
| Lance Stroll | 50000 | 0.2% |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 50000 | 0.2% |
| Fernando Alonso | 50000 | 0.2% |
| Sebastian Vettel | 50000 | 0.2% |
| George Russell | 50000 | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Latifi | 50000 | 0.2% |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 50000 | 0.2% |
| Antonio Giovinazzi | 50000 | 0.2% |
| Mick Schumacher | 50000 | 0.2% |
| Nikita Mazepin | 50000 | 0.2% |
After a 20-day break, Formula 1 is back for its second race of the season with the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET.
F1 added this event to the schedule last season to make up for lost races during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the first race at Imola since 2006, so we don't have a ton of recent data.
Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton is now the favorite at +110 at PointsBet. He won the pole on Saturday, which caused him to move from +140 to +110. Red Bull's Sergio Perez qualified second and dropped from 18-1 to +550. His teammate, Max Verstappen, is still the second betting choice at +180.
So the Red Bulls will start No. 2 and No. 3. Merc's Valtteri Bottas will start eighth.
Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix Starting Grid
| Position | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton | MERCEDES |
| 2 | Sergio Perez | RED BULL |
| 3 | Max Verstappen | RED BULL |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc | FERRARI |
| 5 | Pierre Gasly | ALPHATAURI |
| 6 | Daniel Ricciardo | MCLAREN |
| 7 | Lando Norris | MCLAREN |
| 8 | Valtteri Bottas | MERCEDES |
| 9 | Esteban Ocon | ALPINE RENAULT |
| 10 | Lance Stroll | ASTON MARTIN |
| 11 | Carlos Sainz | FERRARI |
| 12 | George Russell | WILLIAMS |
| 13 | Sebastian Vettel | ASTON MARTIN |
| 14 | Nicholas Latifi | WILLIAMS |
| 15 | Fernando Alonso | ALPINE RENAULT |
| 16 | Kimi Räikkönen | ALFA ROMEO |
| 17 | Antonio Giovinazzi | ALFA ROMEO |
| 18 | Mick Schumacher | HAAS |
| 19 | Nikita Mazepin | HAAS |
| RT | Yuki Tsunoda | ALPHATAURI |
Last season at Imola, Bottas took the pole from Hamilton by 0.097 seconds, and both were more than one-half second better than Verstappen. Hamilton ended up winning the race with Bottas second and Daniel Ricciardo third (then with Renault). Verstappen was poised for a second-place finish before an "instantaneous puncture" knocked him out late in the race.
So far this year, Red Bull has had the fastest car in Formula 1, despite Hamilton's strategically superior win in the season opener at Bahrain. Verstappen went off in that race at -175 (54.02% probability to win) with Hamilton at +190 (29.27%), so it's a big move from the opener.
Mercedes had the two fastest cars in Friday's FP2 at Imola with Gasly just 0.078 seconds behind Bottas. Verstappen had an issue early in the session and ended up with the 14th-fastest car. Red Bull's Perez was sixth, with both Ferraris and Gasly ahead of him.
Rain is likely for race day, so could we get another midfield car hitting the podium like Ricciardo last season? McLaren will surely be a favorite amongst bettors in some of the more niche markets this weekend, with Lando Norris's P4 finish in Bahrain and Ricciardo's P7 that could have been even better. The McLaren cars +450 and +600 to hit the podium, and -162 and -137 for a top six finish after they qualified sixth and seventh.
If you're playing an "experience on a unique track" angle, look no further than AlphaTauri. It's the only team to test its car at Imola this season since the team is headquartered just down the road. Gasly is +550 to hit the podium after qualifying P5 on Saturday.
Gasly qualified P4 here last season, but did not finish because of a water pressure issue. AlphaTauri disappointed in Bahrain, so it might be a good buy-low spot.
Gasly also won a rainy race in Italy last season, the first of his career. Carlos Sainz, now with Ferrari, finished second in that race, with Lance Stroll third.
