What a race we had in Azerbaijan!
Ferrari suffered its worst output of the entire season as both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz retired, allowing Red Bull to cruise to maximum points and extend its lead in the Constructors Championship and Max Verstappen's lead in the Driver's Championship.
As for our bets, we FINALLY produced our first 3-0 week. Mercedes put both drivers into the top six to cash our derivative play, while both matchups — Sebastian Vettel over Daniel Ricciardo & Mick Schumacher over Lance Stroll — cashed as well thanks to some late luck. Those results move our season-long record to 15-9 (+6.75 units) as we head to Montreal for the Canadian Grand Prix.
With that established, let’s get to our newest trio of plays for Formula 1’s ninth Grand Prix of the season.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for Canadian Grand Prix
*Odds as of Thursday night
Red Bull Double-Podium Finish (+100 at Fanduel)
We can only speculate how Red Bull would fare in Baku had Ferrari not encountered its issues. However, Canada’s circuit should favor Red Bull even more than last week.
There are only 14 corners at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve and two (fairly) lengthy straights. That will undoubtedly give an advantage to Red Bull, which has demonstrated quicker pace in the straights than its rivals Ferrari and Mercedes.
Beyond that fact, there’s some betting calculus that leads me to jump at this price.
First is the simple fact that unless he encounters reliability issues, Verstappen will be on the podium. To date this season, the defending world champion has finished on the podium in every race in which he’s crossed the finish line.
Plus, Verstappen was P5 here in 2019, behind only the two Ferraris and two Mercedes. Therefore, one would assume you’re essentially taking +100 that Sergio Perez will also be on the podium.
Even if we assume Leclerc will recover and grab another podium, I’m still confident in Perez. At this moment, it feels as though it’s three drivers — Perez, Carlos Sainz and George Russell — battling for the remaining podium spot.
From where I’m sitting, I power rate Perez ahead of both, especially at a track that rewards speed.
For those reasons, I would play this market up to -120.
Sebastian Vettel (-125 at BetMGM) over Daniel Ricciardo
Let’s run it right back with Vettel shall we?
This is more so a sell-high spot on Ricciardo, who despite earning points in Baku, still finished behind Vettel’s Aston Martin. The Australian also finds himself at a track correlative with other circuits where he’s produced lackluster finishes this season.
At Imola — a track with only 19 corners and a lengthy straight — Ricciardo finished P18 despite starting P6. In Monaco — a street circuit with 19 corners and, stop me if you’ve heard this before, a lengthy straight — Ricciardo qualified P14 and finished P13.
Further, both races saw Ricciardo finish behind Vettel, who has produced a spectacular run of form lately. Just across his last five grand prix’s, Vettel has finished no worse than P11 in the four races in which he’s avoided retirement. He’s also bested Ricciardo in three straight races.
Vettel also has the historical edge over Ricciardo when it comes to race form in Canada. Although bettors have never seen him on this track with Aston Martin, the four-time world champion has finished no worse than P5 in his last five appearances at this track. As for Ricciardo, his last five races in Montreal have resulted in finishes of P6-P4-P3-P7-P13.
As a result, I project Vettel closer to -135 in a matchup with Ricciardo, so I’m content to lay -125 with the lead Aston Martin for a second straight week.
Alex Albon (-115 at BetMGM) over Mick Schumacher
Whereas I’m sticking with Vettel this week, I’m choosing to abandon Schumacher in favor of the more reliable Alex Albon.
Give credit to the former Red Bull Racing representative who has proven reliable this year as the lead Williams driver. Although he has two DNFs on the season — including one concerning DNF at Monaco — he’s crossed the finish line no worse than P13 in five of the six races in which he’s finished.
Further, two of Albon’s three best finishes this season came at correlative circuits. In Australia, the lead Williams driver finished P10 after starting P20. At Imola, he finished P11 after starting P18. He’s also coming off a P12 in Baku after starting P17.
Most importantly, Albon has crossed the finish line before Schumacher in four of the last five grand prix’s in which they’ve both been classified. Plus, in just three races in Australia, Italy and Azerbaijan, Albon recorded a faster lap than Schumacher’s Haas in two. Include each driver’s best lap at Monaco — in which both posted a DNF — and Albon’s record rises to three better laps in three of the four aforementioned grand prix’s.
Although both drivers are relatively inexperienced at this track, I’d have Albon rated as a favorite in this matchup and am happy to bet him at a pick ‘em price.
