Red Bull's Max Verstappen recovered from a DNF in Australia to claim victory at Imola, decreasing Charles Leclerc's advantage in the World Championship race.
Meanwhile, our bets, like Verstappen, improved from our output in Australia. Our third 2-1 week of the season featured two easy cashes with Lando Norris finishing P3 to cash a top-six play, while Carlos Sainz wrecked on the opening lap to cash a "no" podium bet sweat-free. Unfortunately, Verstappen also claimed the fastest lap to render our Leclerc fastest lap bet play a loser.
Those results move our record on the season to 7-5 (+3.25 units) as we shift our attention to this week's inaugural Miami Grand Prix. My best bets are coming shortly, but first, let's look at the latest Formula 1 odds for the Miami Grand Prix via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Formula 1 Odds for Miami
| Driver | Odds |
|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | -105 |
| Charles Leclerc | +115 |
| Carlos Sainz | +1200 |
| Sergio Perez | +1200 |
| Lando Norris | +4200 |
| George Russell | +5000 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +5000 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | +7500 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +12000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +14000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +18000 |
| Pierre Gasly | +20000 |
| Guanyu Zhou | +20000 |
| Mick Schumacher | +20000 |
| Alex Albon | +20000 |
| Lance Stroll | +20000 |
| Yuki Tsunoda | +20000 |
| Nicholas Latifi | +20000 |
| Sebastian Vettel | +20000 |
| Kevin Magnussen | +20000 |
Formula 1 Picks for Miami
Lando Norris Top-6 Finish (-130 at FanDuel)
Norris has been on an absolute tear since a disappointing finish at Bahrain and I don't think the betting value is all gone.
If Norris produces another top-six finish in Miami — that would be his third such finish in his past four races — I think he'll be un-bettable moving forward. So, I want to (hopefully) cash in one last time before he moves into the upper echelon of the paddock.
As mentioned, Norris recorded a P5 in Australia before claiming a podium finish at Imola, finishing P3 behind the Red Bull duo of Verstappen and Sergio Perez. However, for this race I'm choosing to focus on his outputs in Australia, as I believe that track shows similar characteristics to Miami's.
Norris qualified P4 at Albert Park and was first in the field in Free Practice 3. Further, even though he posted the eighth-fastest lap time, he was only eight-tenths out of the fourth-fastest lap.
Further, dating back to last season, Norris has impressed on street circuits. In six such outings, the lead McLaren driver has recorded a top-six finish in three and has points finishes in all six (in two of the exclusions — this year in Saudi Arabia and last year in Russia — Norris finished P7). Plus, Norris has qualified P7 or better in four of those six races.
At a new track that benefits speed, back Norris to post another strong finish.
Esteban Ocon over Daniel Ricciardo (-105 at BetMGM)
Regular readers of this section know that Esteban Ocon on a street circuit may be a hidden gem.
Although he was P14 at Imola, Ocon was in the points in all three races prior, including a P6 at Saudi Arabia and P7 in Australia, both street-style circuits. Plus, dating back to last year's grand prix in Brazil, Ocon has now been in the points in seven of his past eight races.
In terms of his prowess on street circuits, the record doesn't lie. Dating back to last season, Ocon has finished inside the points in four of his past six races on such circuits. However, he has won points in three of his past four grand prix's on such tracks.
Meanwhile, Ricciardo's finish in Australia — P6 after qualifying P7 — gives me slight concern, but I believe part of that motivation came from it being his home race. Additionally, Ricciardo has proved inconsistent on street circuits. Across his past six such races, Ricciardo was P6-DNF-P5-P4-P9-P12. On the flip-side, Ocon has gone P7-P6-P4-P14-DNF-P9.
Plus, Ocon has had the advantage over Ricciardo quite a bit lately. He has won this head-to-head matchup in three of four races this season and seven of the past eight overall. And even though Ricciardo won the matchup in Australia, Ocon was only a spot behind and .018 seconds behind Ricciardo's fastest lap.
For those reasons, I power-rate these drivers pretty evenly and would bet Ocon up to -115 against Ricciardo's McLaren.
Max Verstappen & Charles Leclerc both in the Top-Three (-110 at BetMGM)
From my perspective, I believe the past two combined races have created the perfect buy-low opportunity for this pair to finish on the podium.
In Australia, both ran inside the top-two for the entirety of the race where both drivers were involved. Then, Verstappen spun out and exited the race. At Imola, a similar script followed as both Leclerc's Ferrari and Verstappen's Red Bull ran inside the top-three for all but 18 of 63 laps, with Leclerc spinning out on lap 53 after running in P3.
Beyond those incidents, though, there's a lot to like with these two drivers. Both have qualified P3 or better in three of four races this season while neither has qualified outside of fourth in any race. Plus, in the three races in which they did qualify on the podium, both went 1-2.
Additionally, these two cars have easily proved the fastest on the grid. Through four races, Verstappen and Leclerc have owned the two fastest laps in three. At a Miami circuit that rewards speed and (likely) won't see any weather issues, I struggle to foresee a scenario where either car fails and sees a driver miss the podium.
Although I'd prefer to get this in plus-money and don't hate an alternate bet of Verstappen/Leclerc both in the top-two (+110), I would bet this up to -125.
