The best day in motorsports is here!
After a winner is crowned in the F1 Monaco GP, the middle leg of the motorsports triple header is the 107th Running of the Indy 500 (12:45 p.m. ET, NBC). One of 33 drivers in the Indy 500 will get a coveted sip of milk after winning The Greatest Spectacle in Racing in front of an estimated 400,000 fans.
Last year, Swede Marcus Ericsson laid claim to the Borg-Warner Trophy after firing off at 22-1 odds in his Chip Ganassi Racing Honda.
The Ganassi cars have all been strong again, with all four drivers placing inside the top 10 in qualifying. In fact, earlier this week I gave out a bet on one of the Ganassi cars as my Victory Lane pick on Action Network's motorsports betting podcast, Running Hot. If you can find that pick at the odds I gave out on the podcast, I'd still make that bet, but I wouldn't go shorter than that number.
Aside from the Ganassi cars, this year's field is extremely deep. Also, with the addition of some new aerodynamic parts and a softer left-side tire, we could see a bit of a shakeup from last year.
Drivers have had two weeks to practice and prepare their cars. Over those two weeks, there have been some drivers happy with their cars and some who were notably still struggling for some combination of balance and/or speed.
Fortunately, I've watched every practice session, listened to as many driver interviews as I can, and have followed this series closely for most of my nearly 40 years on this planet.
In combination with my mathematics background, I've found some enticing value for my Indy 500 best bets.
Indy 500 Odds, Picks, Best Bets
Felix Rosenqvist Top-3 Finish +470, Felix Rosenqvist to win +1400
I wrote about this pick in our best bets compilation, but FanDuel is giving us Rosenqvist to grab his first career podium finish on an oval at a mouth-watering +470.
Nearly all of his peers have identified him as having one of the cars to beat, and he's being given the ninth-best odds to do so.
I also don't mind a smaller bet on him to win outright, where again he's being given the ninth-best odds to do so at Caesars Sportsbook at a 14-1 price tag.
Pick: The Pick: Felix Rosenqvist top 3 (+470) |
Ryan Hunter-Reay (-105) over Ed Carpenter
Caesars Sportsbook has this matchup between two 42-year-old drivers who have both run at or near the front many times throughout their Indy 500 careers.
The difference for me is in each driver's assessment of his car on Friday's final practice during Carb Day, where Ed Carpenter said his car was "dog-ass slow".
Ryan Hunter-Reay, on the other hand, said during a TV interview after his practice session ended early thanks to a fluid leak that he was happy with the balance and felt they could trim out a bit more to achieve even more speed.
Fortunately for RHR, that fluid leak came on Carb Day instead of race day. You can be sure his Dreyer & Reinbold Racing team will have everything buttoned up after that issue.
Agustin Canapino to Win Group +200
Bet365 has the following four drivers in a group:
- Agustin Canapino +200
- Sting Ray Robb +280
- Katherine Legge +280
- RC Enerson +300
Of these four, I immediately picked out Canapino as the driver to beat in this group back when he was +240, but I would still back him at +200. Robb, Enerson and Legge all struggled to even make the field with Robb ending up on the last row and Enerson and Legge the last two cars to avoid the Last Chance Qualifying.
Canapino has posted impressive speed throughout the week and was sixth-fastest on Carb Day. His other three competitors all ended up 23rd or worse. While a single lap doesn't tell us much, maybe we'll let his peers do the talking. When asked which driver is most overlooked, seven-time IndyCar winner Colton Herta immediately identified Canapino as one to watch and who has a fast car.
Bonus Bet: Canapino top-10 finish (+800 at Barstool Sportsbook)
Kyle Kirkwood Top-5 Finish +400
Kyle Kirkwood, the second-year driver out of the Andretti Autosport stable, has a win in his pocket already this year at Long Beach and is thirsty for more. The Jupiter, Florida native has been quick all month and over several sessions throughout the month has expressed how happy he is with his car.
At the open test session, Kirkwood was quite pleased, and on the first day of practice, he said he wanted to wrap up the car and save it for race day.
On Fast Friday, he mentioned how they had a fast slipstream car, which is important because most of the race will be run in the slipstream (also known as the draft, or tow). Then in his Peacock interview, Kirkwood proclaimed, "I don't think there's really anyone else out there at the moment that's better than this AutoNation Honda."
Fast forward to Carb Day and, like Rosenqvist, Kirkwood ended his session more than 30 minutes early because the car was so good.
Last year as a rookie, Kirkwood took one of the worst cars on the grid and advanced from a 28th-place starting position to a 17th-place finish. This year he starts 15th, and with what he feels is one of the better cars on the grid, a top-five finish is definitely within reach.
Barstool Sportsbook is giving us 4-1 odds on this bet, and I believe Kirkwood gets it done more than 20% of the time.
