The 2024 NTT IndyCar Series concludes this weekend with the championship race at Nashville Superspeedway, a 1.33-mile concrete oval that hasn't hosted IndyCar since 2008.
Only two drivers slated to run this weekend at Nashville ran in 2008: Scott Dixon, who was the winner of that race, and Will Power, who was in his rookie season racing for the now-defunct KV Racing Technology.
That said, there are still some pretty strong trends we can rely on for handicapping Sunday's race (2 p.m. ET, NBC), which leads me to one team focusing on one driver, as well as another driver who is undervalued for the season finale.
IndyCar at Nashville Best Bets
How to Bet Team Penske
Team Penske has been the dominant team on ovals, winning five of the six oval races this year, nine of the last 11 dating back to last year, and 23 of 37 oval races since 2018. Most of those wins have come in the form of Josef Newgarden, who's claimed 15 ovals victories in that span, including an absurd 10 of the last 17 oval races run.
Unfortunately for Newgarden, it's his two teammates Will Power and Scott McLaughlin who remain mathematically eligible for the championship. Power has won one of the six oval races this year while McLaughlin has grabbed two of the oval racing checkered flags. However, as long as current championship leader Alex Palou starts the race, that eliminates McLaughlin from title contention.
That means all focus for Team Penske would be on Power, who needs to overcome a 33-point deficit to Palou to win the title.
That's difficult – but not impossible – with a race win.
Should Power pick up the win, along with leading the most laps and winning the pole, he could score 54 points. So all Palou has to do to secure the title is finish in ninth place or better to be crowned champion for the third time in four years.
If Power wins, but doesn't grab the pole or lead the most laps, that relaxes to an 11th-place finish for Palou.
In other words, Power needs Palou to falter.
That said, if Palou runs into issues, expect all hands on deck for Team Penske to get Power to the finish line with the win. Palou has had two oval finishes worse than 11th this year, so it's not out of the question that Power could win the title.
That should bump his chances of winning just a bit if his Team Penske teammates are willing to protect him like Ryan Blaney did for Joey Logano in NASCAR's championship race two years ago. He's available at +500 at multiple sportsbooks, including DraftKings, Caesars, BetRivers and Hard Rock Sportsbook.
The Bet: Will Power to win (+500)
What About the Others?
When we look beyond Team Penske, two names pop up: Scott Dixon and Pato O'Ward. Of the two, I prefer O'Ward, who's had a stronger string of results than Dixon.
O'Ward leads Dixon 1-0 in oval wins this year, 2-1 over the last three years, and 3-2 over the last four. In addition to O'Ward's three oval wins in the last four years, he's also had an astonishing eight runner-up finishes on ovals in those four years. Add in two other third-place oval finishes, and O'Ward has finished on the podium in 13 of the last 20 oval races.
This year, O'Ward also had strong cars at both Gateway and the second Milwaukee race, though he ultimately retired in both events with mechanical issues.
If there's a driver who's going to upset Team Penske on an oval, he's the most likely candidate.
That makes his 9-1 price at Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings quite juicy. I'm along for the ride.
The Bet: Pato O'Ward to win (+900)
One Final Note
As of this writing, sportsbooks have not released any other bets besides outright winner markets. That said, I expect a full slate of bets, including podium finishes, matchups, top manufacturer bets and more to pop up.
I'd definitely take O'Ward's equivalent top-three (podium) price should he remain +900 for the win.
I'm also interested in the upside of young guns, and betting on future A.J. Foyt teammates Santino Ferrucci and David Malukas to make their podium finishes at longer odds is potentially playable.
Be sure to join the racing channel in the Action Network Discord, and follow me in the Action App to see if I grab any more bets as different markets are released.
