IndyCar Odds, Expert Pick for Ontario Honda Dealers Indy Toronto: Bet This Street Course Ace (Sunday, July 21)

The NTT IndyCar Series heads north of the border for its lone race outside of the U.S. for the Ontario Honda Dealers Indy Toronto on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, Peacock).

Toronto is the fourth of four street-circuit races that the IndyCar series will run on this year.

Street-course racing is a bit different from natural terrain road-course racing. The streets tend to be bumpier, requiring different setups and allowing less margin for error; any slipup could put your car in the wall rather than just dropping a few tires on the grass or dirt but mostly being able to keep pace.

That lends itself to a handful of drivers who rise to the top on this IndyCar track type.

IndyCar Odds & Best Bet for Toronto

For those who don't know, Kyle Kirkwood is my favorite driver, but I do believe my analysis is unbiased when it comes to him because I don't just blindly bet him at every race – or even every street race. Just when the odds are good enough.

Kirkwood has excelled on the streets in his two years at Andretti Global, picking up two wins in eight street-course starts.

Yes, both those wins were last year, but Kirkwood has been strong this year as well, picking up top-10 finishes in all three race on street courses. He and teammate Colton Herta arguably had the two cars to beat at the series' most recent street race at Detroit, but strategy didn't play out in either driver's favor.

At Toronto last year, Kirkwood had one of the best cars, running first and second in the two practice sessions. However, qualifying proved tricky as it rained and Kirkwood's team was unable to time the optimal conditions, resulting in an eighth-place starting spot.

Despite that, he clearly had enough speed to run toward the front of the field all race, and when the opportunity presented itself, he was able to get off strategy as the lead car on his strategy. It looked like that strategy would have played out in his favor and potentially given him the win, but Kirkwood hit Helio Castroneves from behind on the ensuing restart and was given a penalty, ending his shot at the win.

At 16-1 odds, we're not asking for Kirkwood to be the fastest, even though that is certainly within his range of outcomes on street courses. He just needs to be fast enough to put himself in the mix on a street course where cautions tend to shake things up.

If you don't have 16-1 available to you at either ESPN BET or DraftKings, 15-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, and 14-1 at bet365, BetMGM and Hard Rock Sportsbook are all fine for a guy who's won 25% of his street-course races in competitive equipment.

The Bet: Kyle Kirkwood to win (+1600) | Bet to: +1200