The 2023 IndyCar season can be defined by one word: parity.
The first three races of the year have produced three different winners, including a first-time winner two weeks ago, as well as seven different podium finishers.
On Sunday is race No. 4 of the IndyCar season: the Children’s of Alabama Indy Grand Prix (3 p.m. ET, NBC) at Barber Motorsports Park.
Defending series champion Will Power is among those who have yet to claim a podium finish this year, and he will start 11th at Barber today after an off-track excursion during qualifying.
With all of this parity, it's tough to slice through the noise, but thankfully there's still some value on the board.
IndyCar Odds, Picks for Barber
A Bet to Win
Several books are hanging a 7-1 number on Scott McLaughlin to win today, which is a bit too long.
McLaughlin won three races last year, all on road or street courses, meaning he won 25% of those races in 2022. That includes a win at what is currently the most comparable track to Barber: Mid-Ohio.
McLaughlin is known for his road-course prowess, having come from Supercars, where he set "The Lap of the Gods" at Bathurst in 2017, and he has backed up that reputation in IndyCar by adapting incredibly quickly to these cars.
The third-year driver paced the field in the first practice session and was third in the second session. In addition, McLaughlin led all cars at the IndyCar test at this track in the preseason, though only 16 of the 27 cars participated in the test.
McLaughlin was in contention for the win at St. Petersburg and may have won had he displayed a little more patience before ultimately clattering into today's polesitter, Romain Grosjean, after the final pit stop. Had he grabbed the win, that would've mark four in the last 14 at the road and street courses.
A Top-5 Bet
The aforementioned Romain Grosjean starts on the pole for today's race and should be heavily favored to finish inside the top five.
The former F1 driver blew an engine in the first practice session but came back with a vengeance.
In the second practice session, he ended up sixth despite never having clear track. When he finally did, he placed second, first, and first in his three qualifying sessions.
Third career pole for @RGrosjean.
Is the first win coming at @BarberMotorPark? #INDYCARpic.twitter.com/omRKsZ9kzB
— INDYCAR on NBC (@IndyCaronNBC) April 29, 2023
Grosjean has shown tremendous upside in IndyCar since he joined two years ago, and that hasn't changed. In the season opener at St. Petersburg, he was the victim of McLaughlin's aggressive move late in the race, which cost both drivers a shot at the win while running 1-2.
At Texas, he crashed with two laps to go while running fifth. In the series' most recent race, he came in runner-up to teammate Kyle Kirkwood and arguably would have had a chance to pass the second-year driver had Grosjean not been tasked with saving fuel.
Without the St. Pete and Texas incidents, Grosjean would easily be leading the IndyCar Series standings.
Polesitters are 10 for 12 at scoring a top-five finish at Barber. Let's follow the polesitter trend here and back the driver who has been top two in speed at both road courses so far this year for a top-five finish (-165 at Caesars).
