The NTT IndyCar Series heads to Portland International Raceway for the final road course race of the 2024 season.
With just four races left, defending series champion Alex Palou leads the championship by 59 points over Colton Herta heading into the IndyCar Grand Prix of Portland on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, USA Network).
Three additional drivers – Scott Dixon, Will Power, and Scott McLaughlin– reside between 65 and 73 points adrift of Palou in the title hunt.
The series' final three races are all on ovals, which should be advantageous for Power and McLaughlin as Team Penske is the cream of the crop on the ovals.
That means it's all hands on deck for Alex Palou at Portland for Chip Ganassi Racing (CGR) on Sunday, and that's where I'm making my IndyCar pick.
Bet on IndyCar with our bet365 promo code!
IndyCar at Portland Best Bet
Palou joined CGR in 2021 after a successful rookie season with Dale Coyne Racing in which Palou picked up a podium finish for the small-budget team at another natural terrain road course, Road America.
Since joining CGR, Palou has gone on an absolute tear. He's won two championships in three years, is leading the championship again this year, and shines at the natural terrain road courses.
With CGR, Palou has 19 podium finishes in 28 starts at natural terrain road courses (including the exhibition race at Thermal earlier this year that he won) for a 67.9% podium rate. If we remove the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, which is a bit debatable as to whether it fits in this category, then that jumps to 16 podiums in 21 starts, or a 76.2% podium rate.
At Portland itself, Palou has finishes of first, 12th, and first.
With all the focus on him this weekend for Ganassi, Palou is a great bet for a podium finish at -125 odds. That translates to implied odds of 55.6%, and it's pretty clear Palou's podium rates are well above that at this track type, and this track specifically.
The Bet: Alex Palou Top-3 finish (-125 at Bet365) | Bet to: -175
