Books are starting to post prop bets for Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway (4:00 p.m. ET, FS1).
I've already put out the top matchup to bet, but in addition to the criteria I used there, I've now also had a chance to run my simulations. I found a real doozy in this week's top manufacturer markets.
Without further ado, let's jump into the bet.
NASCAR at Sonoma Picks
*Odds as of Tuesday evening
William Byron Top Chevy +1800
Just cutting to the chase here, my model has Byron as the fourth most likely driver to finish as top Chevy, yet BetMGM has Byron listed as eighth most likely to do so.
My model has Byron taking top bowtie honors 12.1% of the time, compared to his 5.3% implied odds. In other words, my model is saying +725 is breakeven, and we're getting +1800 here.
By comparison, DraftKings is more in line with my model, posting this same prop as +800.
My friend, and respected NASCAR modeler, Jim Sannes of numberFire, is also showing value on Byron in the outright market, pegging him at 5.1% to win the whole race, and 12.5% to finish as top Chevy.
Between my model, Jim's model and DraftKings' +800 price tag, I can't see any reason to pass on Byron at 18-1.
However, for a bit more behind the models, let me point you to this tweet I made. In that tweet, I show driver averages in predictive metrics over the last handful of road course races.
Byron stands out as the third best in the average of these metrics among all drivers. At worst, he comes in eighth.
If we boil it down to just the Chevy drivers, he comes in at worst fourth in any metric.
Byron has one added bonus factor in that he already has two wins, locking himself into the playoffs. That means he can solely focus on winning strategy rather than collecting stage points like he has in some past road course races.
Lock in this bet now before the value undoubtedly disappears.
The Bet: William Byron Top Chevy +1800 | Bet to: +900
