The 2019 NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Las Vegas (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) for the third race of the season but the first race under the new full aerodynamic package. Today's race marks the introduction of the aero-ducts used to funnel air out the side of the car, creating a bigger wake behind for trailing cars to draft. That will change the dynamic of this race compared to past Las Vegas races.
Traditionally, races at Las Vegas have been relatively tame affairs, with a major incident rate of only 10% since 2014. That's all expected to change with the new areodynamic package, where a few lead cars are expected to pace in front of a Tour de France-like peloton, with lots of movement and potential for disaster over the course of 400 miles.
One note of caution to bettors: Don't rely too much on last weekend's race at Atlanta. That came on a track that is notorious for chewing up tires, whereas Las Vegas is much easier on the Goodyears. Additionally, the race at Atlanta did not make use of the aero-ducts, so drafting played a minor role. The draft will be much more prominent at Vegas.
As a result, I won't be relying too much on year-to-date performance or track history. Instead, I'll use the RotoViz Splits App to dive into a larger sample size of five low tire-wear tracks plus two restrictor plate tracks from 2017 to present, and supplement those stats with on-track performance this weekend from final practice on Saturday to find the top bets for Vegas.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +175 over Austin Dillon
Just the mere uncertainty of how this race will play out, combined with the certainty of the draft, makes any driver at these odds an attractive play. Stenhouse is the longest head-to-head bet I can find, yet faces a driver in Dillon who has never driven as a driver worthy of these odds.
Both drivers have two career wins, but Stenhouse's came through dominance at restrictor plate tracks where the draft was highly important. Dillon's two wins came through strategy and attrition. He won both races leading no more than two laps.
If we compare their driver ratings at the seven-track subset, Stenhouse actually leads Dillon with a 79.8 driver rating over Dillon's 78.4. Stenhouse has led an average of 4.8% of laps in these races, compared to Dillon's 0.3%.
Yes, Dillon had the second-fastest practice time over 10 laps, but Stenhouse was in the ballpark at ninth, and he had the best 20-lap time, per the FOX commentators.
I'd bet Stenhouse as low as +130, and I'll gladly take +175.
Kurt Busch +400 over Denny Hamlin, Aric Almirola, Erik Jones
- Jones +215
- Hamlin +250
- Almirola +290
- Busch +400
Looking at this group of four drivers, it's striking to me that the elder Busch brother would have such long odds, given that neither of the other three drivers have stood out from Busch in the past.
The seven-track subset of races and only looking at races each driver finished (to accurately assess driver quality, since DNFs are largely random and not predictive) shows Busch with the highest driver rating among this quartet at 97.4, with Jones the closest at 89.7.
Yes, Busch took a step down from Stewart-Haas Racing to Ganassi Racing, but his teammate Kyle Larson is consistently near the top of the NASCAR driver pool, with multiple wins under his belt.
Busch finished third last weekend at Atlanta and has continued to show pace this weekend with the fifth fastest 10-lap average. That's ahead of both Jones and Hamlin and only one place and 0.15 MPH behind Almirola. Busch in the ballpark as the best driver in this group.
Aric Almirola (+100) over Clint Bowyer
Almirola should be the favorite in this matchup, and it's not close. Almirola and Bowyer have nearly equivalent driver ratings (83.8 vs. 84.5) at the seven-track subset since 2017.
However, Almirola was with the inferior Richard Petty Motorsports in 2017. Just limiting the subset to 2018 to present, when Almirola and Bowyer have been teammates at Stewart-Haas Racing, we see Almirola jumps out to a substantial 92.9-to-87.5 advantage.
In final practice, Bowyer's car was "wrecking loose," and his 10-lap average suffered. He ran only 16th-fastest, with a time 1.4 MPH slower than Almirola's.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to win (+5000)
Use prop betting as the basis for your bankroll building, but certainly take a shot at a driver with long odds to win if your roll allows and if the value is right. And with Stenhouse, that value is there.
As I mentioned earlier, Stenhouse has two wins at tracks where drafting plays a heavy role, and at Las Vegas we can expect the draft to be a bigger factor than it ever has been in the past. That brings drivers like Stenhouse into play for a top-five finish, and with the right circumstances he could sneak a win in.
Stenhouse is an uber-aggressive driver, known for causing many wrecks. But that aggressive nature allows him to have a shot at winning at these types of races if he keeps out of trouble.
His ninth-place 10-lap average in practice was notably also the second-best 10-lap average among drivers who made their 10-lap run later in the practice session, as the track heats up, loses tire grip and becomes slower. That likely translates to a top-five time earlier in the session.
If you're more conservative, Stenhouse to finish top three at +1250 is attractive as well.
