The NASCAR Cup Series season is seven races old. That means we have enough data to assess driver performance in 2022.
When looking ahead, I see one driver who stands out as a clear value bet in the championship futures market.
I recommend making this bet immediately, before lines move and before this weekend's Cup Series race at Martinsville.
Why?
Well, this driver is my model's No. 1 favorite to win the race. If that were to happen, his odds will surely plummet after Martinsville.
Even if this driver doesn't win, he's still a clear value bet for the title.
2022 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Future Bet
Odds as of Monday afternoon
FanDuel and PointsBet have Ryan Blaney priced at +1200 to win the NASCAR Cup Series title.
Blaney has absolutely dominated this year. Not only is he the current leader in the NASCAR Cup Series point standings, but he also leads all drivers at non-drafting ovals in 2022 in the following predictive stats:
- Average driver rating
- Average green flag speed
- % Laps led of laps run
- % Fastest laps of laps run
In addition, Blaney is exceptionally strong at drafting ovals (three career wins) and is no slouch at road courses (one win, five top-five finishes in 20 starts).
The kicker: Blaney had the fastest car at Phoenix earlier this year. In that race, Blaney had the most laps led, most fastest laps and second-best average green flag speed.
Only a poor pit stop late in the race kept him from running near the front the entire race.
Phoenix plays host to the NASCAR Cup Series championship race, so that bodes well for Blaney's chances should he make it there in contention.
As I mentioned, Blaney is the driver most likely to win this weekend at Martinsville, per my model, which gives him a one-in-eight chance of doing so.
He's been the best driver so far in 2022, yet he's priced as the eighth-most-likely to win.
The Bet: Ryan Blaney to win the championship +1200 | Bet to: +900
