What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30!) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
The NASCAR Cup Series heads west to Fontana, Calif., for 200 laps at Auto Club Speedway (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) on Sunday.
Auto Club Speedway is a 2-mile oval with a very old, abrasive track surface. That means tires will wear out fast.
We'll want to pinpoint drivers who excel at worn-out surfaces. In addition to Auto Club Speedway, Atlanta Motor Speedway (prior to its repave for this season) should be the main comparable track.
Practice and qualifying were wild, with nearly a dozen cars involved in an incident in some form or another.
Considering these factors, I have three PrizePicks over/unders for you.
NASCAR Wise Power 400 at Auto Club Prop Picks
The picks I'm making for this particular play, in order, are:
- Erik Jones — UNDER 20.5 fantasy points
- Christopher Bell — OVER 38.5 fantasy points
- Brad Keselowski — UNDER 35.5 fantasy points
Jones is the easiest fade, starting in the second spot. There are just so many top-tier cars behind him that it's likely he ends up significantly further back than where he starts. My model gives him a median finish of 6.5 points, so this is huge value.
Bell is a driver I'm super high on this weekend, especially after practice. He was in the top five in both five- and 10-lap average. He felt very comfortable with his car compared to others.
His qualifying lap left a bit on the table, but that just means he can make it up in the race. My model gives him a median projection of 46.9 points.
Keselowski is a talented driver and former series champion. However, he's likely no longer in top-tier equipment. His 10th-place starting position means he'll need to likely also finish inside the top 10 to hit this mark.
My model says it's less likely he does, and more likely that he drops back. His median projection is 26.1 points.
Like last weekend at Daytona, there’s a lot of uncertainty. I prefer making this pick a Flex Play, so two out of three picks still nets you a positive return.
We just don't know enough with this new package to feel extremely confident in a full 3-for-3 sweep.
