The 67th running of the Great American Race — the Daytona 500 — kicks off the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series regular season.
Daytona always produces intense racing, and with the aerodynamic and engine package that's run here, at Talladega, and at Atlanta, that intensity can quickly turn into calamity — or glory.
One stat I like to point to is how winning at Daytona is hard! If we take the top eight superspeedway drivers between the two big superspeedways, Daytona and Talladega, they've won a combined eight times in 137 starts in what I call the "chaos races." To me, that means the Daytona 500, and the second Daytona race specifically when it has been positioned one or two races away from the playoff cutoff on the schedule.
That is a 5.8% hit rate, so it becomes very hard to bet any driver at anything shorter than about 16-1 when the very cream of the crop are winning at a sub-six percent rate. So while I do think the likes of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski are rightly the race favorites, it's just too hard to bet them at such short prices.
That means, I'll be looking down the order to find value.
As always with superspeedway betting, and particularly Daytona, keep your bets small, feel free to sprinkle the board on some long shots, and hope your bets survive what's likely to be a chaotic handful of laps as the 500 miles — or more — wind down.
Daytona 500 Odds, Expert Picks
Austin Cindric to Win Daytona 500
In his young career, Austin Cindric has quickly transformed into one of the best superspeedway drivers in the series. He's finished second or better in all four of his Daytona Duel races, has a win in the Daytona 500, and last year was one of just two drivers to lead 12-plus laps at all four races at Daytona and Talladega.
My model has him not far off his Team Penske teammates, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, as one of the favorites to win the Great American Race.
If you can get him 20-1 or longer, my model likes that value.
The Bet: Austin Cindric to win (+2400 at FanDuel) | Bet to: +2000
Ross Chastain to Win Daytona 500
The market has sharpened over the week of on-track action, but I'm still showing moderate value on a driver that fits a couple characteristics I really look for at superspeedways.
Ross Chastain is capable of winning at superspeedways, having already pulled off the feat once at the 2022 GEICO 500 at Talladega.
The other factor: aggression.
Chastain has no problem making an aggressive push or block, or making a daring move into a hole that barely exists. We saw that come to a head again at Talladega in 2023 as Noah Gragson led the field with Chastain lined up directly behind him on the high line on an overtime restart. Chastain went for a small hole between Gragson and Blaney, and ultimately put Gragson into the outside wall.
My model has Chastain at 3.9% to win, which is just around 25-1 as fair value. To leave a little wiggle room, I'd be fine playing this down to 28-1, but definitely shop for the 30-1 and 31-1 prices out there at BetMGM and FanDuel if you can.
The Bet: Chastain to win (+3100 at FanDuel) | Bet to: +2800
John Hunter Nemechek Top-10 Finish, Top Toyota
Nemechek enters his third full-time Cup Series season, but this is the first time he kicks his Cup year off with continuity from the year prior. His team, Legacy Motor Club (LMC), nearly won a Daytona Duel race already this year as Erik Jones trailed Cindric by about a foot when the caution flag flew to end the race on the last lap.
That shows what those LMC cars are capable of.
Nemechek is also plenty capable, grabbing five straight top-11 finishes at Daytona and Talladega to start his career. He hasn't had a top-11 at these tracks since, but that still gives him a 62.5% rate of finishing 11th or better in eight career Cup starts at the two big superspeedways.
My model give him just shy of a 20% chance to finish inside the top 10, so I'm fine playing this to around +450.
The Bets: John Hunter Nemechek Top 10 (+470 at FanDuel), Top Toyota (+3000 at DraftKings) | Bet to: +450 and +2500, respectively
