Betting superspeedway racing is incredibly tricky because of the overwhelming randomness that takes place at these races. Being in the wrong place at the wrong time can make a driver look like he had a far worse day than he actually had. On the flip side, another driver could hang out in the back all day and find himself inside top 10 when the checkered flag waves.
When handicapping these races, I tend to evaluate a driver's intangibles as much as his recent performance at Superspeedways. One driver stands out featuring a perfect combination of past performance, intangibles, and price.
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Ryan Blaney (+1200) to Win at Daytona
Betting favorites at Superspeedway races is tough, because any one of these drivers can win. However, if we compare the favorites to each other, Ryan Blaney's odds clearly don't match his expected performance relative to his peers.
Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick are favored ahead of Blaney across the betting market. Hamlin compares similarly to Blaney, but Hamlin's odds are much shorter. Moreover, Harvick doesn't have the Superspeedway performance to support his short odds.
Since the start of 2019, Blaney has won two of his six superspeedway races and placed second in another. With two of those races ending in DNFs, that means Blaney has had a top-two finish in 75% of his completed Superspeedway races over the past two years.
Team Penske and the Ford stable are perennially regarded as race favorites at Superspeedways, and at some books you can find Blaney priced behind equally stellar teammates Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano.
In fact, Logano and Keselowski are being offered at 13-1 at FanDuel, which are also in play as value bets. But Blaney's recent form makes him the cream of the crop at 12-1 at multiple books.
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Ryan Newman (+5000) to Win at Daytona
The last time the Cup Series raced on the Daytona Superspeedway was on the "Roval" circuit two weeks ago. However, the last visit to the oval at Daytona saw Ryan Newman leading coming to the checkered flag, but was spun out and hit in the cockpit area and was subsequently hospitalized. Thankfully, "Rocket Man" fully recovered and will be racing in an attempt to win the regular season finale and earn his spot in the Cup Series playoffs.
Newman has a strong history under the 2019-2020 aerodynamic rules at Superspeedways. Cup cars no longer use restrictor plates and instead use a combination of a tapered spacer and higher drag aerodynamics to produce pack-like racing.
Newman has thrived under these rules. In 2019, he had four finishes of 14th or better, including two top-five finishes and a runner-up finish at Talladega. Then this season, he flirted with a potential win at the Daytona 500 before the aforementioned crash that threatened serious injury.
Track history isn't all he has going for him. Newman is in the heralded Ford stable, which has dominated Superspeedway racing over the past six years. His teammate Chris Buescher has put up similarly strong results, and previous teammate Ricky Stenhouse Jr. was a regular contender to win.
Newman's 50-1 odds at William Hill's New Jersey book are reflective of a driver that isn't likely to contend. However, I'd place Newman in a tier with the likes of Matt DiBenedetto, Erik Jones and others, each of whom report odds in the 30-1 range.
