Las Vegas plays host to the third race of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season on Sunday.
The 1.5-mile track should be a little less crazy than last weekend's race at Auto Club Speedway, simply judging by the vast reduction in incident in practice and qualifying.
However, one thing that should remain constant is the influence of practice times on our ability to be able to handicap speed.
As we always say in NASCAR betting, the best you can do is to handicap speed. The rest of the luck and variance play themselves out.
Well, here are a few bets for the race (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) where the speed and the odds just don't align. Those are the spots we want to take advantage of.
2022 NASCAR at Las Vegas Picks
William Byron to Win (+1200)
I won't go too far in depth here, because I already wrote about Byron to win in my midweek piece.
However, it's important to note that even after on-track activity, this bet still holds very good value.
Byron was the second quickest in five- and 10-lap average, only trailing his teammate Kyle Larson.
It's likely his odds at DraftKings didn't shorten because he slightly missed it on his sole qualifying lap.
However, the larger data set clearly paints the picture of a car to beat this weekend.
Byron is a bet down to +900 odds.
Kyle Busch Top-5 Finish (+275)
Kyle Busch wrecked early in the 35-minute practice session. The car was heavily damaged, forcing him to go to a backup car and subsequently missing his qualifying lap.
That means he'll start dead last in 37th place.
However, don’t let that deter you. This race is 400 miles long, and good drivers frequently come through the field quickly at intermediate tracks.
Heck, last weekend Busch came from multiple laps down to finish in 14th place.
My model says Busch should land a top-five finish 34% of the time. That handily beats the 26.7% implied top-five odds he has at BetMGM.
For comparison, DraftKings has this exact same position listed at +100 odds. While I wouldn't go that low, I don't mind betting this down to +225 to ensure value.
Christopher Bell to Win (+3000)
PointsBet is hanging a very long line for a driver that was incredibly fast in practice and also won the pole position.
Bell was fourth quickest in five- and 10-lap average, and clearly had one of the fastest cars in the 35-minute practice session.
While his only career win has come at the Daytona road course, he's still in top-tier equipment at Joe Gibbs Racing.
Bell's odds to win are in the teens at most major books, so if you can grab him 20-1 or longer, you will be getting solid value.
