Heading into this weekend's Shriners Children's 500 at Phoenix, the talk of the town is about the option tire that Goodyear is bringing and how it will perform at Phoenix.
Drivers had a 45-minute practice session to try out the option tire, as well as the primary tire. With all the cars on track at once, it provides us a great way to analyze data to see which drivers have a feel for each kind of tire.
Importantly, we should expect most drivers to end the race on the option tire as it's the faster tire and remained faster than the primary tire even after 30-plus laps.
That means I want a driver who looks good on both sets of tires but with a bit of an emphasis on the option tire, which leads me to my best bet for Sunday's Shriners Children's 500.
NASCAR at Phoenix Best Bet
Coming into the weekend, I had Kyle Larson as one of three drivers with a double-digit percent chance of winning this race, behind only Christopher Bell and Ryan Blaney, who were the clear Nos. 1 and 2 by my model.
After practice, Larson's standing only solidified in my model as he posted the best 25- and 30-lap average on the option tire. Yes, Larson did go out early in the session which was an advantage for posting a strong speed, but his gap to Ryan Blaney was more than five percentage points faster on a 0-100 scale by my FLAGS metric and six percentage points of the next driver to start on option tires — Chase Briscoe.
That also meant Larson was at a disadvantage on the primary tire since he put those on halfway through the practice session. However, of the six cars to run on the primary tire later in the session, it was Larson who again was fastest in FLAGS, this time by six percentage points over Carson Hocevar.
Overall, Larson ran 27th in FLAGS on the primary tire, but we have to remember that 31 of the 37 cars had an advantage on the primaries by starting the practice session on them when track conditions were faster.
The fact that Larson topped his practice strategy on both tires is far more important than a mediocre qualifying run. He's still the third-highest driver in my model and is a shade over 12% to win by my model and he actually closed the gap to Bell, who now runs behind Blaney in my model after practice.
The Bet: Kyle Larson to Win (+1000, BetMGM & Caesars) | Bet to: +850
