Bristol Motor Speedway holds a special place in my NASCAR betting heart. As an undergrad at Appalachian State University in Boone, N.C. — which is about 60 miles from Thunder Valley — I attended the 2001 spring race at Bristol (won by Elliott Sadler), working a credit card booth for a fraternity fundraiser.
I walked into that racetrack knowing nothing about NASCAR and left with it instantly moving to the top of my list of favorite sports.
The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Bristol on Sunday for the Supermarket Heroes 500, a race that is sure to provide plenty of beating, banging, excitement and angry drivers.
Here's how I'm navigating Sunday's race from a NASCAR betting perspective.
NASCAR at Bristol Best Bet Picks
*Odds as of 7:30 a.m. ET on Sunday
As of Sunday morning, I'm still waffling on which favorite to bet, or to bet one at all.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) and I'll post all updated bets I make that aren't listed below.
Ryan Blaney (+1400)
If you simply look at average finish, Blaney's performances at Bristol are nothing to write home about, but it's the underlying metrics that make him so appealing on Sunday.
Over the past four races at Bristol, his 14.0 average finish ranks just 11th among all drivers, yet Blaney has the second-best driver rating, has run the third-most fast laps and has led the most laps in the series.
This four-race sample is important because the race package they'll use this weekend is closer to what was run in 2018 than last season, so it's important to not solely look at last year's results as the way the cars will drive on Sunday could be significantly different than 2019.
After finishing third at Charlotte on Wednesday, Blaney is also third in line picking his pit stall, which is huge at Bristol due to a very tricky pit road.
[Bet now at PointsBet. NJ and IN only.]
Kurt Busch (+1600)
Busch has six career wins at Bristol, including the 2018 night race, which was run with a race package very similar to what the Cup Series is using at short tracks this season.
Kurt also finished fifth on Wednesday at Charlotte, meaning he'll have one of the best stalls on pit road.
History of success at Bristol? Check. Fast car this season? Check. Good pit stall? Check.
Sign me up at 16-1.
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Matt DiBenedetto (+2500)
I know, I just said we shouldn't lean solely on last season's results at Bristol due to an aero package change, but that's trickier than meets the eye with DiBenedetto.
Matty D. moved from Go Fas Racing to Leavine-Family Racing prior to the start of the 2019 season, which was a significant upgrade in the quality of his equipment.
DiBenedetto now drives for Wood Brothers, which is solid equipment is as well, so looking at his Bristol stats prior to 2019 doesn't accurately reflect how good he is here — although he has consistently over-performed his equipment in Thunder Valley throughout his career.
Last season, only three drivers — Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Kurt Busch — had a better average finish at Bristol than DiBenedetto. He also led the fifth-most laps en route to the ninth-best driver rating, indicating he was clearly a top-10 car over the course of both races.
Remember, betting is about the value in the number, and here we're getting a driver who finished second the last time the Cup Series visited this track, knows how to lead laps and will start ninth at 25-1 odds.
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
Tyler Reddick (+7000)
Well, may as well not stop betting him now!
Reddick has never run a Cup race at Bristol, but man was he fast there in the XFINITY Series.
Tyler had the best driver rating in the spring XFINITY race at Bristol last season en route to a second-place finish, and improved upon that in the fall by winning in incredibly impressive fashion.
After failing pre-race inspection, Reddick was forced to start last, then make a pass-through penalty lap as soon as the race started, which meant he had to come down pit road, under pit road speed, while the rest of the cars were racing on the track at full speed.
This put him almost two laps immediately to start the race. In response, all Reddick did was climb back onto the lead lap, then work his way through the entire field before eventually winning the race.
Reddick is just too good here to pass up at the longshot price of 70-1.
[Bet now at FanDuel. NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
