It's a tale as old as time.
I tell myself that I'll have no betting interest in a given NASCAR race for a multitude of reasons, like a new race at a new track with a new format, before ending up with a massive card once the green flag waves.
And yes, that's exactly what's happening Sunday for NASCAR's 2022 Busch Light Clash at the Coliseum (Feb. 6 at 6 p.m. ET, FOX).
I've already locked in a crazy 500-1 longshot, as well as a handful of other outright winners for this race, and now can't help myself from betting a 45-1 prop that is my favorite Busch Light Clash wager thus far.
NASCAR Busch Light Clash Betting Pick
*Odds as of Jan. 23
Putting 23 cars on a quarter-mile racetrack built inside the LA Coliseum with no points on the line is very likely to result in extremely aggressive racing, and with aggressive racing often comes attrition.
Throw in the added fact that teams are using a brand new car and we frankly don't have any clue which drivers will perform well in the Busch Light Clash.
Because of this, I'm all over Bubba Wallace at 45-1 odds to finish as the top Toyota at DraftKings Sportsbook.
To start, there are only six Toyotas in the field, meaning that simply surviving until the end could put Wallace in a position to cash this props by itself.
And it's not like Bubba is going to be inferior equipment as well.
Wallace's team, 23XI Racing, has a close technical alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR), and while I'm not making the argument that the equipment is equal, Wallace certainly isn't piloting back-marker stuff either.
And finally, while it's not much, Wallace's best track is arguably Martinsville Speedway, which is a flat, half-mile track and likely the best comparison to what drivers will tackle at the LA Coliseum.
Odds of 45-1 translate to an implied probability of 2.17% and for the reasons above I'm confident that Wallace's chances of finishing at the top Toyota are much higher than that percentage, meaning this prop has plenty of value.
The bet: Bubba Wallace (45-1) for Top Toyota
