In this week's episode of "Running Hot," Action Network's motorsports betting podcast, hosts Nick Giffen and Steven Young unpack the drama of last weekend's Martinsville race and look forward to the climactic NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway.
Martinsville's Controversial Conclusion
Last weekend saw Ryan Blaney clinch his place in the Championship 4 alongside Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick, while William Byron secured the final spot amidst a controversial ending. The race was marked by strategic blocking from Chevy drivers Austin Dillon and Ross Chastain to assist Byron's advancement.
Christopher Bell, despite a valiant effort to pass, was penalized for a rule-infraction reminiscent of a banned maneuver popularized by Chastain himself.
Phoenix Raceway: The Final Battleground
As the championship heads to Phoenix, a one-mile track with a unique layout and notorious dogleg, the racing dynamics shift. Historically, the championship contenders often exhibit a surge in performance during this critical race. This season, the final four includes Blaney, Byron, Reddick and Logano.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Picks
Giffen and Young offer a deep dive into their predictions, emphasizing the analytical approach they use to decipher potential race outcomes.
Top Three Combinations: Giffen discusses potential value in bets that see Blaney, Byron or Reddick finishing in the top three together. Statistically, one-third of similar combinations in recent championship races have finished inside the top three, signaling potential profits at 4-to-1 odds.
Christopher Bell's Redemption: Young spotlights Christopher Bell as a significant contender, despite his exclusion from the Championship 4. Bell's past dominance at Phoenix, coupled with his determination to prove his worth under controversial circumstances, makes him a compelling contender. With a favorable track record at Phoenix, Bell offers a sneaky threat to the championship contenders.
Giffen also highlights Bell as a standout contender, one who could win the race. After Bell's dominant performance in the first Phoenix race earlier this season — where he won by a significant margin — Giffen sees tremendous value in betting on Bell to repeat his triumph. At odds of 6-to-1, Bell's potential victory could be a lucrative bet given his track record at Phoenix and motivation to prove his capability amidst the playoff drama.
Giffen argues that if not for the strategic blocking in Martinsville that kept Bell out of the championship, he could have competed for the Cup Series title.
"If Austin Dillon and Ross Chastain had done what they should have done, and that is pass William Byron, Bell would be in the Championship 4 right now," Giffen said.
Victory Lane Predictions
Both hosts back Ryan Blaney to win the championship, citing his unmatched performance metrics at Phoenix in the next-gen era. Blaney's consistency at the track positions him as a strong favorite in their models. Despite the potential for external factors impacting the race, Blaney's history at Phoenix, including five top-five finishes, presents a robust case for his championship win.
