After an exciting elimination race at Martinsville Speedway, the "Championship 4" are set for Sunday's season finale at Phoenix Raceway.
Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski will battle for the title, with the highest-finishing driver of the four hoisting the championship trophy.
For those new to NASCAR, one of these drivers doesn't necessarily have to win the race to be crowned champion. The eventual winner simply has to finish ahead of the other three eligible contenders.
Here's a look at NASCAR Cup Series championship odds from DraftKings.
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Odds
| Chase Elliott | +250 [Bet Now] |
| Denny Hamlin | +250 [Bet Now] |
| Brad Keselowski | +250 [Bet Now] |
| Joey Logano | +270 [Bet Now] |
As you can see, Elliott, Hamlin and Keselowski are co-favorites at +250 odds. This means a winning $100 bet on either of these drivers would pay out $350, which includes the original $100 risked plus winnings of $250 ($100 x 2.5).
So, which of these drivers is the smartest bet, in terms of value, to win the Cup Series title?
Let's look at how the Championship 4 have performed at Phoenix, as well as at New Hampshire and Richmond, which are similar flat tracks, this season.
Over the three combined races at these tracks, Keselowski leads the way with two wins and the best driver rating of the group.
Logano has the best average finish of the Championship 4 and won at Phoenix earlier this year. However, Elliott actually had the best car of the championship eligible drivers, finishing with the second-best driver rating (behind Kevin Harvick), while leading the most laps and running the most fast laps.
So, which driver is the best bet to win the title?
NASCAR Cup Series Championship Pick
I just can't get Keselowski's dominant performances at New Hampshire and Richmond out of my head, especially considering he's offering the best price of the Championship 4 drivers.
And even though he finished 11th at Phoenix in March, the metrics show that Kez was much faster than the 11th-best car, finishing with the second-most laps led and third-most fastest laps.
You can truly make a case for each of these four drivers — that's why they're still alive in the playoffs — but I'm backing Keselowski to win his second career Cup Series title.
And no matter who you're betting to win the NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix, be sure to shop for the best odds.
For example, Keselowski is +250 at DraftKings, but FanDuel is offering him at +310.
The Bet: Brad Keselowski (+310) to win the Cup Series Championship
[Bet Brad Keselowski now at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.]
