Saturday night's Coke Zero 400 should be extremely fun for NASCAR fans. Superspeedway racing is already extremely unpredictable with very close finishes, but for the first time, the Daytona night race will also be the final NASCAR Cup Series regular season event, meaning drivers currently on the outside looking in can steal a win a punch their ticket to the playoffs.
Drivers who need to win, but aren't typically among the weekly frontrunners, can do just that at this track, which should result in very aggressive driving as the laps wind down.
As I just mentioned, this track and type of racing can offer a lifeline to drivers who aren't among the favorites, which, in turn, means there is more value down the odds board than most race weeks.
With this in mind, I'm locking in a 40-1 longshot who is not only in one of the fastest superspeedway cars, but has also proven that he can contend for wins at Daytona and Talladega this season.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make for Saturday's Coke Zero 400 at Daytona.
NASCAR at Daytona Odds, Betting Pick
Odds as of Wednesday at 9 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Chris Buescher (+4000) to Win at Daytona
It's no secret that Roush Fenway's No. 17 Ford was one of the fastest superspeedway cars with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. behind the wheel.
But the key question was whether it was more the result of Stenhouse's skills in the draft or the speed of the equipment itself.
It turns out that both were true.
Stenhouse has continued his superspeedway success this season piloting the No. 47 car for JTG Daugherty Racing while the Roush Fenway No. 17 hasn't lost a step with Chris Buescher, who took over prior to the start of the 2020 season.
Buescher has the third-best average finish at the superspeedways this season, trailing just Ryan Blaney, who won at Talladega in June, and Denny Hamlin, who won the season-opening Daytona 500.
Superspeedway average finishes can be misleading, especially in two-race samples, as simply avoiding wrecks and surviving can result in good finishes, but that doesn't necessarily mean those cars were slicing and dicing with the frontrunners and contending for wins.
But in Buescher's case, the metrics say he's had the speed to run with the favorites.
On top of the third-best average finish at Daytona and Talladega this season, Buescher has the seventh-best driver rating and eighth-best average running position, proving that he's not just falling into good finishes, but earning them with the speed to run with the top cars.
Buescher is driving equipment that can win at superspeedways and after his third-place finish in the Daytona 500, I see no reason to wait on his 40-1 price.
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