As a NASCAR fan, I can't wait for Sunday's Go Bowling 235 (3 p.m. ET, NBC) at Daytona. As a NASCAR bettor, I'm terrified.
Sunday's race will not be run on the traditional oval that is used for the Daytona 500, but will instead be the first Cup race to take place on the "roval," which combines the track's infield road course and oval.
Some drivers do have experience on this layout from time behind the wheel in other series, like IMSA's Rolex 24, but it's difficult to project how those laps driving sports cars will translate to stock car racing.
In general, I plan to be very light this weekend in terms of bet size and will combine experience on this layout, general road course racing experience and historical performance at Sonoma, Watkins Glen and especially the Charlotte roval to land on my wagers.
I will be on the road Sunday morning heading to the great sports betting state of Pennsylvania, so be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any bets I add leading up to green flag.
NASCAR at Daytona Roval Odds, Betting Picks
*Odds as of Saturday at 9 a.m. ET
William Byron (+4000)
It doesn't take much to convince me to bet on Byron most weeks, but even I'm surprised how much I like him at this number.
Again, as I mentioned above I have little interest betting the favorites right now at such short prices when we have absolutely no historical data at this track. That said, I am willing to take some cracks further down the odds board as the expected randomness of a brand new track with no practice could very easily level the playing field.
Byron was sneaky fast at the road courses last year, running the third-most fast laps while leading the third-most laps over the three races at Sonoma, Watkins Glen and Charlotte.
More importantly, Willy B. has been very impressive in two races on the roval at Charlotte Motor Speedway, likely the best comp we have for Sunday's race.
Byron has the sixth-best driver rating across those two races, and after getting a look at it in 2018, was even better last year, winning the pole, leading the third-most laps, tying for the second-most fast laps and posting the third-best driving rating en route to a sixth-place finish.
And finally — and I'll admit this is a very subjective — I believe that Byron's iRacing prowess can provide him with an edge over the field. Granted, I don't think the edge will be huge and, in general, I'm not very bullish on the correlation between sim racing and on-track racing, but at a track where stock car racing experience is essentially even among all the drivers, any laps on the Daytona roval, even if they're digital ones, can help.
Byron has be really fast at the best comps we have, will be hammering laps on iRacing in preparation and has a solid enough 13th-place starting position. For all of these reasons, I'm all over this 40-1 number.
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Michael McDowell (+20000)
I really like betting McDowell for a top-10 finish, and for the very same reasons I am betting him — albeit small — to pull off the shocker at 200-1 odds.
In a race where drivers won't have any NASCAR experience on the Daytona roval layout, McDowell has competed in the Rolex 24 on five separate occasions, so he is familiar with the road course.
Additionally, he has the 10th-best average finish in the two races run at the Charlotte roval.
McDowell also comes from a road racing background which certainly can't hurt, but could also be a sneaky big advantage should rain hit Daytona on Sunday.
Unlike oval races, NASCAR uses rain tires at road courses and will have them ready on Sunday. Should the rain fall, teams will switch over to rain tires, which is a big edge for drivers who have experiencing running in wet road racing conditions.
And with a 60% chance of rain in Sunday's Daytona forecast, this is just one more reason to take a flier on McDowell at such a big price.
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