Sunday's Go Bowling 235 (3 p.m. ET, NBC) on the road course "roval" at Daytona International Speedway will be the first NASCAR Cup Series race on this layout, making it very difficult from a handicapping perspective.
We have no historical data to analyze and don't truly know how closely this track compares to other road courses on the Cup Schedule, like Sonoma, Watkins Glen and the Charlotte roval.
Because of this, it's reasonable to assume that this race will be more wide open than most, paving the way for longer shots down the odds board to outperform expectations.
After looking at general road course performance, experience and a handful of other factors, here's one driver worth betting for a top-10 finish at Daytona.
I will be on the road Sunday morning heading to the great sports betting state of Pennsylvania, so be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any bets I add leading up to green flag.
NASCAR at Daytona Roval Odds, Betting Pick
Odds as of Saturday at 9:10 a.m. ET and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
Michael McDowell (+340) for a Top-10 Finish
Randomness is the driving theme of my betting strategy this weekend. Will it result in a surprise winner? Who really knows. However, uncertainty surrounding what the racing will look like makes taking cracks at some longshots a reasonable approach, especially in top-10 props.
Yes, I am throwing a few bucks on McDowell to win in case this race does really get sideways, but the No. 34 Ford sneaking into a top 10 is much more probable, yet still offers nice value.
McDowell comes from a road racing background and actually has five previous starts in the Rolex 24, a 24-hour road course race on the Daytona roval.
Additionally, McDowell has the 10th-best average finish over the two Cup Series races run on the roval at Charlotte Motor Speedway, which is likely the best comp on the current Cup schedule.
In McDowell we have a driver with extensive road racing experience, including on the Daytona roval, and with a top-10 average finish on the road course at Charlotte.
He'll be starting deep in 30th place, but that's obviously built into this price, and for all the reasons above I'm aggressively betting McDowell for a top-10 finish at +340.
[Bet now at BetMGM. CO, NJ, IN and WV only.]
