The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season has enough races under its belt to know which drivers are true contenders week in and week out, and which are behind the eight ball.
It's no surprise to see Martin Truex Jr. (+350), Kyle Larson (+450) and Denny Hamlin (+600) as the favorites for Sunday's Drydene 400 at Dover (2 p.m. ET, FS1) as they've been the three dominant drivers so far this season.
With oddsmakers up to speed on the best cars as well, there may not be much futures value when betting outright winners.
On the other hand, with just three drivers eating up so much of the implied probability pie, it does offer longer prices further down the odds board.
Still, this may not mean that those longshots are worth outright bets to win either, but there are still plenty of opportunities to get down on undervalued prices in other ways, like top-three, top-five and top-10 finish props, head-to-head matchups and more.
And when it comes to today's Drydene 400 at Dover, one driver is popping with top-10 finish value.
NASCAR at Dover Betting Prediction
*Odds as of Sunday at 7 a.m. ET
Chase Briscoe (+550) for a Top-10 Finish
While Briscoe has zero Cup Series starts at Dover, the "Monster Mile" was a very good track for him in the XFINITY Series.
In his past four XFINITY Series starts at this steeply-banked, one-mile concrete oval, Briscoe has two fifth-place finishes, a 10th-place finish and a dominant win in the most recent race back in August.
In fact, Briscoe led the most laps in two of those four races as well.
Now, let's be real for a second: Briscoe has very much disappointed so far this season.
Stewart-Haas Racing is struggling as an organization compared to what we're used to seeing, but last week's race at Darlington showed some potential light at the end of the tunnel for Briscoe and his No. 14 team.
Chase tied his season-best finish with an 11th-place run in that race, and even though Darlington and Dover aren't all that similar, they will both be run with the same high-horsepower, low-downforce aero package.
Is Briscoe a longer shot to finish today's race in the top 10? Absolutely, but that's very much reflected in his current price of +550.
Those odds translate to an implied probability of 15.38%, meaning if you think he finishes inside the top 10 more than 15.38% of the time, then he's worth a bet.
I do and I will.
